Former Yankee Andy Pettitte's time on Hall of Fame ballot has been a roller coaster

Perhaps the most confusing aspect of the entire Cooperstown induction process is how a player can qualify as a Hall of Famer in Year Four on the ballot, like Carlos Beltran finally did Tuesday night, but not on his first try.

Or even Billy Wagner, who waited a decade to be stamped for immortality after being considered merely an elite closer during his the previous nine years by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.

The stats don’t change. The resume is frozen. The off-field behavior is what it is. And yet, year after year, in most cases, we see the votes steadily climb — either reaching the vaunted 75% that punches their Cooperstown ticket or booting them off the BBWAA ballot after 10 years.

Beltran was fortunate enough to be trending strongly in the right direction, an early sign that being singled out by commissioner Rob Manfred for the Astros’ cheating scandal — the only player MLB’s report specifically mentioned by name — wasn’t going to close the Hall of Fame gates. That’s not to suggest, however, the wait didn’t serve a punitive function anyway, as Beltran still had to sweat out three rounds before punching his ticket with a solid 84.2% on this year’s ballot.

So I asked Beltran, a very cerebral player with a high baseball IQ, how difficult it was to try and figure out what was going through the electorate’s minds every winter. Full disclosure: I voted for Beltran from the jump, but he only got 46.5% in his 2023 debut, then somehow almost doubled it in rapid fashion. Either people just got more lenient over time, or figured he paid his penance for any Houston wrongdoing (which also cost him the Mets’ manager gig after only 77 days on the job).

“I have to tell you that this morning, maybe for the first time, I was very anxious about the result, the process,” Beltran said Tuesday night during a Zoom call with the media. “Last year, in the private [non-publicized voters] I went down 11 points and ended up with 70%. So things can happen. Different scenarios can happen.”

In Beltran’s case, however, he had time on his side and no candidate has ever made it as high as 70% that early and not wound up with a plaque. But there are some other interesting scenarios still developing on the BBWAA ballot, and one of the more intriguing involves Andy Pettitte, who made a huge leap to 48.5% this time — up from 27.9% the previous year — with only two chances remaining.

Pettitte is no slam dunk, of course. Some may scoff at his career 3.85 ERA — that currently puts him in a five-way tie for No. 763 on the all-time list — and the foundation of his case is propped up by postseason dominance during the Yankees’ dynastic run. Still, he was one of the four names on my ballot this year, along with Beltran, fellow inductee Andruw Jones and Chase Utley (59.1%).

The major strike against him? Pettitte admitted using HGH (human growth hormone) to recover from an injury, and PEDs remain the toughest hurdle for players to overcome in any Cooperstown attempt. Or I should say the usage that’s publicized, as there’s little doubt the Hall of Fame already is populated by those who at least dabbled in PEDs at some point, based on those drugs’ prevalence in the sport for decades.

The other fascinating thing about Pettitte is the way he’s yoyoed on the ballot over the past eight years. He started at only 9.9% in 2019 — 5% is the cutoff to stay eligible — and it’s been a roller-coaster ride since, as his rises were soon followed by steep plunges. Pettitte actually went backward, from 17.0 to 13.5 between Year 5 and 6, although getting to 48.5 keeps him in the game for these final two tries. Larry Walker had 34.1% in Year 8 before barely getting across the finish line at 76.5, so it has been done.

And whether that involves softening on Pettitte’s PED admission, or just a better appreciation of what he accomplished — thanks to more advanced statistical analysis — remains to be seen. Others were just doomed from the start. Manny Ramirez, one of history’s greatest hitters and prolific PED abuser, fell off the ballot Tuesday night after getting just 38.8% of the vote in his 10th year. Alex Rodriguez remains alive with 40% in his fifth try, but his candidacy is stalling, as he only nudged upward from 37.1% a year ago.

Neither Ramirez nor A-Rod appeared on my ballot, but Barry Bonds and Rogers Clemens both did — for all 10 years — based on the fact neither was ever disciplined by MLB (besides being two of the game’s legends). Manny and A-Rod willfully committed their crimes during the penalty phases of the steroid age, repeatedly, so they now wear that stain for good.

Some probably still feel that way about Beltran being the mastermind of the Astros’ sign-stealing conspiracy. Or Pettitte dipping into a PED stash to shorten an IL stint, as he claims. But as we’ve discovered, voters can get more forgiving over the years — or maybe they just decide when a player has adequately served his time. Either way, that could make this a dramatic finish for Pettitte’s Cooperstown push, not unlike all those breathtaking moments he produced in October.

By David Lennon

dave.lennon@newsday.comDPLennon

David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.