Will the war in Iran derail GOP's midterm chances?

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump’s pursuit of a more aggressive foreign intervention strategy — with U.S.-led airstrikes in Iran, the removal of Venezuela’s president, and talk of regime change in Cuba — has the potential to make foreign policy a top-tier issue in this year’s midterm elections, political analysts tell Newsday.

While midterm voters historically prioritize domestic issues — namely the state of the economy — the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s global strategy, and recent increases in gasoline prices across Long Island tied to the ongoing operation in the Middle East, could influence voters who polls show largely oppose the United States engaging in long-term overseas conflicts, analysts said.

With Republicans holding onto razor-thin majorities in the House and Senate, Democrats could win over some of the independents and swing voters who were part of Trump and the GOP’s winning coalition in 2024 if the war with Iran drags out with an uncertain exit strategy, analysts said. They added, however, that Republicans stand to make gains if the war in Iran is wrapped up quickly without mass U.S. casualties.

“Economic perceptions are going to dominate the voting decisions of the handful of swing voters that really move policy and really move electoral outcomes,” said Doug Kriner, a political-science professor at Cornell University. “But to the extent that there's considerable economic unease, there is going to be this constant question: ‘To what extent is the administration focused on these sorts of bread-and-butter issues, or is it running around spending hundreds of billions of dollars overseas on a war that we're not sure what exactly our purpose in being there is?’ ”

The president has defended launching the airstrikes Feb. 28, saying the joint operation by the United States and Israel to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior Iranian officials was necessary to tamp down Iran’s “sinister ambitions” to develop and acquire nuclear weapons. But congressional Democrats and a handful of Republicans have argued that the president should have sought congressional approval to launch a military strike because the Constitution grants Congress the authority to declare war.

Trump last week said he expects the U.S.-led airstrikes aimed at toppling the Iranian regime and dismantling its defense systems to last four to five weeks, but he and his aides have also not ruled out the possibility of sending in U.S. troops, which would signal a more prolonged and deadly conflict. . White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters this past Wednesday at a briefing that it's "not part of the current plan, but I'm not going to remove an option for the president that is on the table.”

Most voters opposed to Iran war

A majority of voters have reported unease over Trump’s military actions, according to recent polls conducted after the first strike in Iran, with 52% of respondents in an NBC News poll released March 5 saying they were opposed to U.S. military action in Iran, and 59% of respondents to a CNN poll released March 2 also reporting opposition. 

While both polls show a majority of Republicans support the president's actions in Iran, the NBC News poll asked Republicans to identify their leanings within the party and where they stood on the war. Those who identified as MAGA Republicans largely supported the strikes, with 90% reporting their approval. Those Republicans not aligned with MAGA were more split, with 54% supporting and 36% opposed.

Former Long Island Rep. Steve Israel, a Huntington Democrat, who led the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee tasked with getting House Democrats elected, said it’s too soon to determine how the current global events will play leading up to November’s midterms.

He noted that during the 2002 midterm election, then-President George W. Bush gained seats for Republicans in the House based on voter approval over his response to the 9/11 attacks. But in 2006, House Republicans lost 31 seats and lost control of Congress, in large part over voter disapproval about Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq.

“The general rule is that voters in midterm elections treat those elections as a referendum on the sitting president,” Israel said in a phone interview.

'Politically tricky' for both sides

Former Long Island Rep. Pete King, a Seaford Republican who previously served as the chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, told Newsday that Iran in particular was a “politically tricky” issue on both sides. He noted that Republicans could be weighed down in the polls if the conflict drags on and involves more American casualties — already six servicemembers died from a retaliatory strike on a U.S. military base in Kuwait — but also noting that Democrats could take a hit if the operation is successful or if they are generally seen as “unpatriotic.”

“It trivializes everything by saying to focus on affordability rather than national defense — well, if there's no national defense it doesn’t matter what kind of economy we have,” King said.

Trump, who ran on a pledge to “bring our soldiers home” and limit U.S. involvement in future wars, has in the second year of his second term struck a different tone, describing the U.S.-led ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro as part of a “new national security strategy.”

“We want to surround ourselves with stability, and we want to surround ourselves with energy,” Trump said.

Trump risks alienating a key part of his MAGA base that elected him based on his pledges to limit U.S. intervention in foreign affairs, said Kriner, the Cornell political science professor. Those Republican voters may not necessarily vote for Democrats during the midterms, he said, but they may be less motivated to turn out on Election Day.

Kriner said: “It could hurt turnout a little bit, and in a lot of these races that could be close, with there already being other pressures of normal midterm swings that could make the difference.” 

By Laura Figueroa Hernandez

laura.figueroa@newsday.com@Laura_Figueroa

Laura Figueroa Hernandez is the White House correspondent and previously covered New York City politics and government. She joined Newsday in 2012 after covering state and local politics for The Miami Herald.