Suburban Democratic enthusiasm eclipses Republicans', poll says

WASHINGTON — With America’s swing-district suburbs key in races for Congress, governor and other public offices, Republican leaders on Long Island and nationally may face a daunting reality: suburban Democrats are more enthusiastic about this election, according to a new poll.

Republicans in competitive suburban congressional districts nationally are expressing less motivation to vote in the Nov. 3 midterm elections, the Hofstra National Center for Suburban Studies poll found, signaling GOP turnout trouble that could also impact gubernatorial and local-level races in New York and elsewhere.

Accompanying this enthusiasm gap between Democratic and Republican voters in competitive suburban districts is wide suburban disillusionment with President Donald Trump and his job performance — ratings so low they are comparable to his numbers in urban districts, where Democrats typically make up a larger percentage of voters.

The poll also shows suburban voter discontent over the direction of the country. Only 27% of those surveyed described themselves as satisfied. Tops among the urgent concerns are inflation at 26%, followed by threats to democracy as a concern of 21% of those surveyed.

The Hofstra center’s survey in late September of 1,510 adult residents in urban, suburban and rural districts has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points; the stand-alone findings from the 994 suburban residents is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Against this backdrop, Democrats are emerging as more motivated to vote than Republicans.

"It's enormous in the suburbs, this enthusiasm gap. You don’t generally see that," said Lawrence Levy, a Hofstra University associate vice president and executive dean of the suburban center, which released its 10th National Suburban poll on Thursday.

The new poll does not provide specific numbers from Nassau and Suffolk or the four congressional districts that cover parts of those counties.

But Levy said these nationwide findings should keep Republican Party leaders up at night, because historically, there has been "far more Republican enthusiasm and turnout in local elections than Democrats'."

Congressional Republicans have made no secret that they are pinning much of their hopes in the last days of the campaign on the cash advantage they’ve been enjoying from megadonors and allied outside political groups — hundreds of millions of dollars more than Democrats for TV ads and other uses, including get-out-the-vote operations, according to media reports.

On Long Island, Republican leaders said internal polling, volunteer turnout and participation at rallies reflect significant GOP enthusiasm.

Compared with the national poll, "we are seeing quite the opposite here in Suffolk County," responded county GOP chairman Jesse Garcia on Wednesday, less than a week before early voting starts. "Republican motivation here is high."

But Jay Jacobs, chairman of both the New York State and Nassau County Democratic committees, said he believes Democrats on Long Island and statewide are more enthusiastic.

"I don’t think it is any different here from the Democratic voter enthusiasm being seen nationally, and is to be expected," Jacobs said. "I think Republicans are headed to a bad day."

The upshot from the new poll: 84% of registered Democrats in competitive suburban congressional districts surveyed in late September said they are "very motivated" to vote, compared with 66% of Republicans and 60% of independents.

Further, 54% of suburban Democrats said they are "much more motivated" than in previous elections, compared with 29% of Republicans and 35% of independents.

Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman is among Republicans depending on big GOP turnouts in his home county and other suburban areas to boost his bid for governor against Democratic incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul. The Island’s four congressional races also could be impacted by any significant edge between the parties’ voter turnout.

A separate, new Quinnipiac University New York State poll conducted between Oct. 15 and 19 and released Wednesday showed Hochul leading Blakeman 55% to 41% among likely voters, with 4% undecided. That 14-percentage-point edge for Hochul was down from 19 percentage points reported by Quinnipiac a month ago.

Other recent independent polls in New York provided similar findings, including more specific details about suburban voters.

Those polls showed suburban numbers were slightly better for Republicans when it comes to the race for New York governor. A Siena poll released on Sept. 23 reported  Hochul leads Blakeman 48% to 46% in the metro suburbs and 50% to 41% statewide. A Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll released on Oct. 7 said the suburbs are a dead heat, 48% to 48%, with Hochul leading statewide 53% to 42%.

Historically, Republicans have needed to win the metro suburbs by about 10 percentage points to prevail statewide, analysts have said. But while Trump’s name may not be on the ballot, his approval ratings — which in his second term have hit all-time lows in several recent national polls --- are proving to also be cratering in the suburbs.

The Center for Suburban Studies poll found only 33% of suburbanites nationwide approve of Trump’s job performance, which is not significantly higher than his 31% approval rating in urban areas where the voting population tends to lean more Democratic.

And in the key majority-suburban districts that will determine control of the House, — 35% of registered voters in these swing suburban congressional districts approve of Trump’s performance, and of those, only 12% strongly approve.

In other recent polls focused on New York, Siena University said voters on Long Island and the Hudson Valley disapprove of the job Trump is doing by a count of 59% to 40%. A Marist survey put it at 55%-45%.