NYS gubernatorial race: Gov. Kathy Hochul tied with Bruce Blakeman on LI, but up 20 points statewide, Newsday/Siena poll says

Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul and Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman are in a near dead heat on Long Island, with the incumbent holding a 2-point lead some five months before Election Day, according to a new Siena University/Newsday poll.

The survey of Nassau and Suffolk counties found Hochul leading Blakeman, 44% to 42%. Perhaps not surprisingly, Blakeman fared better in Nassau than Suffolk.

In Nassau, where he is in his fifth year as county executive, Blakeman leads Hochul, 44% to 39%. But Hochul reverses fortunes in Suffolk, leading 49% to 40%.

But while the race is close on the Island, Hochul has a 20-point lead statewide, 52% to 32%, a margin that grew 4 points since Siena’s previous poll last month.

Veteran election analysts have said Blakeman needs to win the New York suburbs by about 10 points and upstate by about 15 to counteract a huge Democratic advantage in New York City and have a shot at unseating Hochul, who is in her fifth year in office.

With that in mind, Don Levy, executive director of the Siena Research Institute, said either candidate can find pluses and minuses in the new poll.

"I think there is some good news for Blakeman in this poll," Levy said. For example, at this point he is tracking the same as Lee Zeldin, the Long Island Republican who ran against Hochul in 2022, and closed a wide summer deficit before losing by 6 percentage points — though national political trends were different then.

Also, Blakeman’s name recognition is on the rise. Statewide, the share of voters who said they don’t know Blakeman dropped to 54% from 64% just six weeks earlier.

"He’s definitely chipping away," Levy said, noting that statewide, 25% of voters had a favorable opinion of Blakeman and 21% unfavorable, a rate the pollster called "respectable." Among Island voters, he’s running 39%-32%.

Levy quickly added: "But, clearly, he’s got challenges."

Hochul’s lead, sitting at 13 points at the end of March, has risen in two straight Siena polls. Further, when asked if voters favored a generic Democrat or generic Republican for Congress, "Democrats are up 20 points" statewide, Levy said.

A huge factor will be the national midterms and the popularity of Republican President Donald Trump, Levy said. And Trump’s ratings in New York are caving steadily: In January 2025, 41% of New Yorkers viewed him favorably, 56% unfavorably. Now, those numbers are 32%-63% — a net drop of 16 points in 17 months.

Even on Long Island, which Trump carried in 2024, 35% now view him favorably, 58% unfavorably.

Levy said "2022 isn’t 2026," referring to Zeldin’s close run, which was aided by national trends favoring Republicans that year. Then, a Democrat was in the White House, crime was a top issue and midterm congressional elections favored the GOP. Now, a Republican is president, affordability and gas prices loom as top issues and midterm forecasts favor Democrats.

The Newsday poll conducted by the Siena Research Institute was run June 17-23 among 412 registered voters on Long Island. The sample was weighted to match population and voter registration data. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 6.1 percentage points, meaning the answer to any one question might vary by that amount.

The Long Island survey was taken as a subsection of a statewide Siena poll. The statewide poll contacted 1,120 voters and has a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.

Inside the Island numbers

• Gender splits are pronounced. Hochul leads among women, 50%-33%. Blakeman leads among men, 52%-36%.
• Blakeman leads among Island voters not enrolled in any party and those in minor parties — the so-called independent vote — 46%-34%. But Hochul leads that swing group statewide, 41%-36%.
• While white voters on the Island are split, non-white voters favor Hochul, 41%-31%.
• Islanders are split when asked if they approved of how Hochul is doing as governor — 46% to 46%.
• Blakeman is outperforming Trump. Whereas the president's overall favorability stands at a minus 23 points, the county executive’s is a plus 7.

Strong opinions

Even when they split on the candidates, Long Islanders contacted by Newsday for this story share one characteristic: A strong opinion.

"Where to begin? Everything, everything," Anita Langella, a Valley Stream Democrat, said when asked to explain her opposition to Hochul, before specifically noting "her attitude toward the [COVID-19 pandemic] crime wave."

Langella, a senior voter, supported Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, but now supports Trump. Similarly, she opposed Blakeman in 2014 when he ran for Congress but supports him now.

"I’m so glad they [Republicans] put up a good man to run," Langella said.

Anthony Frontino, 76, a Republican in Ridge, said he has "no choice but to support Blakeman."

"I’m just not happy with the direction New York State is taking," Frontino said. "The costs are rising and there’s too many state programs which are depleting the money. I’m being taxed for a lot of social programs."

In contrast, Patti Hendry, 58, of Medford, said she has "never heard of" Blakeman and has no intention of voting Republican right now.

"I definitely would not go Republican at all because I don’t think that they’re independent enough. I think that they just follow the lead of Trump and they don’t have the needs of their constituents in mind," said Hendry, who isn’t enrolled in a political party and supported the GOP in the past.

"I believe that they follow Trump's lead and, even if it's not good for the local people, they’ll try to stay in his good graces and do what they need to do to stay in power," she said.

Hendry likes that Hochul implemented congestion pricing for driving in Manhattan and her initiatives on education and phones in schools. She added: "In general, I like her view on certain things."

See the full poll results:

Newsday’s Keshia Clukey contributed to this story.