Ballot deadline will clarify GOP's plans in race to unseat Gillen

WASHINGTON — Nassau County GOP Chairman Joe Cairo and other party leaders have only days left to lock in a candidate for the June 23 primary ballot for the U.S. House seat held by Long Island Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen.

Veteran party loyalist and former Village of Valley Stream Mayor John A. DeGrace is the name that officially appears on petitions being circulated by county GOP foot soldiers to secure him a spot on the primary ballot.

But DeGrace has not been actively campaigning, even though nonpartisan handicappers have pegged the district as potentially competitive amid a nationwide fight for control of the Republican-led House.

He has not been visible on the stump, is not holding fundraisers, is not regularly putting out his own issue statements or news releases and has not returned multiple calls to talk about his campaign, including on Friday.

That has sustained speculation that Republicans might make a switch, such as backing former Rep. Anthony D'Esposito in a bid to take back the seat he lost to Gillen in 2024. But to run, D'Esposito would need to give up a new job as inspector general of the U.S. Labor Department.

A Federal Election Commission spokesman confirmed Friday to Newsday that DeGrace has not filed initial candidacy papers for the seat. Such a statement of candidacy is required within 15 days of a campaign collecting or spending more than $5,000.

"We have not seen him out on the hustings. I make it that he’s a placeholder," Nassau County Democratic Chairman Jay Jacobs said, meaning that he believes county Republicans plan to substitute someone else.

Any candidate-substitute maneuver would be under Cairo’s control because New York's 4th Congressional District lies entirely in Nassau County. He has not returned calls and messages this week left with a spokesman on where things stand.

Ballot deadline

But if Cairo's plan is to suddenly substitute someone for DeGrace as the party’s choice, time is running out. Midnight Monday is the filing deadline for congressional candidates to deliver enough signatures to the county Board of Elections for them to appear on primary ballots.

Once DeGrace’s candidate petitions are filed, and approved, DeGrace will have to declare if he is accepting the designation or withdrawing from consideration. State election law then allows just days — until April 14 — for someone else to be switched in to take those ballot spots.

If DeGrace does withdraw, the decision on how to replace him on the ballot falls to a panel of five Republicans who are listed on his petitions as a "vacancy committee." That group includes Cairo and four other county GOP stalwarts.

"Joe Cairo is very strategic and knowledgeable of the rules, and the Nassau County Republican Party has been playing by those rules," says Jeffrey Wice, a distinguished adjunct law professor at New York Law School and an expert on state election law.

Jacobs and others said this week say that Cairo appears to be navigating in a relatively unique way to set up an eleventh-hour candidate switch, but one that is allowable. Speculation has been that he’s giving D’Esposito time to decide what to do.

D’Esposito did not return calls or messages from Newsday Thursday and Friday on whether he’s made a decision about running against Gillen. He initially defeated Gillen in 2022 before losing to her in 2024, and non-partisan political analysts say a rubber match could be competitive. 

Gillen announced Thursday that her reelection campaign raised over $1.3 million in the first three months of 2026, bringing her total to $4.2 million since last year, and that she has about $3 million remaining in her coffers.

Lawrence Levy, executive dean at Hofstra University’s National Center for Suburban Studies, said that shouldn't make much of a difference if the GOP candidate is someone credible to local and national GOP funders.

But Levy also predicts that the most powerful dynamic will be President Donald Trump's approval rating. Trump’s approval rating for handling the economy has fallen to a new career low of 31%, according to a CNN poll released Wednesday.

Barring a huge mistake by Gillen or a stronger-than-expected showing in November by Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman as the GOP's nominee for governor — at least within the district — Levy said, "any eventual Republican nominee will have an uphill fight."

Late substitution

This week's filings will also clarify which other candidates qualify for primary ballot lines in Long Island congressional races.

Republican insurgent Gregory Hach says he expects to qualify with enough signatures for a spot on the GOP primary ballot as a candidate for Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi’s seat, although another Republican, Mike LiPetri, has the endorsements of President Donald Trump and local party leaders. And there are Democrats who have filed to run for Gillen’s seat, too.

Historically, Wice, the law professor, said waiting this late to switch in a preferred candidate for Congress is unusual. But it does have precedent, including in neighboring Queens.

The late Rep. Thomas Manton (D-Queens) in 1998 declined a nomination to run for reelection on the last day to withdraw after his petitions had been submitted. That made it possible for Queens Democrats to replace him with Joe Crowley at a point when it was too late for any other Democrat to begin a campaign. Crowley went on to win the seat.

There was talk on Thursday by some Nassau Republicans that Cairo and others on the special vacancy committee were planning to gather as early as Tuesday — the day after the Monday deadline for DeGrace to file his candidate petitions with the county Board of Elections.

There are at least three other Republican candidates who have filed initial papers with the FEC to run for Gillen's seat. They are Massapequa lawyer Dennis McGrath; a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel from Garden City, Marvin Suber Williams; and an East Meadow resident, Brian Miller.

McGrath and a Williams campaign spokesman said Thursday that they had not been contacted by Cairo or the county GOP committee about where things stand heading into next week. McGrath said he was holding out hope to be called upon to run if DeGrace declines the nomination, saying, "I stand ready with my campaign team and organized and in place to carry the GOP torch and defeat Laura Gillen in November."

Jacobs — who is also the state Democratic chairman — said the maneuvering on the Republican side "seems unusual for a race that they have been touting as one that they're so interested in."