LIRR strike could make commutes twice as long, Newsday analysis finds

There could be delays ahead.

Passengers’ commutes into Manhattan during a Long Island Rail Road labor strike would be longer — in some cases, almost twice as long — according to a Newsday analysis.

Consider someone who typically boards a weekday train from Ronkonkoma at 7:26 a.m., bound for Penn Station, arriving 10 stops later in New York City at 8:47 a.m.: an 81-minute trip.

Under the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s contingency plan, that same passenger would first board a shuttle bus bound for the Jamaica-179th Street terminal in Queens, a trip estimated to take between 55 minutes and 1 hour and 40 minutes. Then, the passenger would board a Manhattan-bound F subway train for 37 minutes to 34th Street-Herald Square, blocks from Penn.

The total trip time is somewhere between 92 minutes and 137 minutes, according to the analysis, which relies on Google Maps.

Newsday asked the MTA, which runs the railroads, for its own estimates of bus/subway trip times on each leg. Spokesman Lucas Bejarano said that information is not available.

He said passengers won’t need to pay on the shuttle bus; spokesman Tim Minton said passengers would need to pay the subway fare.

MTA officials said Wednesday, after a negotiation session, that talks would resume Thursday. A key sticking point: how much wages should rise. MTA leaders have said the members of the five LIRR unions involved are already the highest-paid railroad workers in the nation, earning a median annual income of about $133,000.

More than 80% of commuters from Long Island into Manhattan rely on mass transit, and the MTA has urged commuters to work from home if possible.

Roughly 270,000 commuters ride the railroad on weekdays. Shuttles won’t be easily available for all. Some commuters will drive — with gridlock feared.

Newsday’s analysis does not factor in the drip-drop of ordinary delays that could lengthen the trip, including having to wait for an available shuttle bus, nor the delays during boarding, disembarking and traffic along the way.

Chris Del Greco, a Rockville Centre resident who works as an elevator mechanic in Manhattan, told Newsday earlier this week about a potential strike: "It’s just gonna be crazy."

"A lot of people will be getting onto a shuttle to Jamaica at the same time as me, so I feel like I’d have to wait awhile to be able to even get on one," Del Greco said. "And it’ll just delay my commute."

Then, upon arrival at the subway, there’s the need to walk from the bus aboveground to the subway station below and then wait for the arrival of a train, which also could be delayed.

In 1994, the last time LIRR workers went out on strike, strikers weren’t happy with shuttle-riding commuters.

As Newsday reported then: "one T-shirted striking LIRR worker came over and yelled out that he wished they all suffered on the return trip by riding in an un-air conditioned school bus."