Blakeman's challenge: Winning over upstate voters who don't know who he is

PLATTSBURGH — Registered Republican voter Kim Woodruff said she doesn’t know who the party's candidate for governor is.

"I don’t pay attention," said Woodruff, 60, who lives in Vermontville, about an hour south of New York’s border with Canada. "I don’t have faith in any of them. They tell you, ‘Oh I’m gonna do this.' "

Woodruff isn't alone. Polling shows that 2 out of 5 "likely" voters, and even more upstate, don't know or have no opinion on the GOP candidate.

That is a problem for the candidate: Bruce Blakeman.

The Nassau County executive has less than three months  before the November election to not only boost name recognition but also appeal to those upstate voters as to why he should be governor. 

In a state where registered Democratic voters outnumber Republicans more than 2 to 1, he’ll need Republican and independent voters — and conservative strongholds like upstate will be crucial to this strategy, political analysts said.

"He needs to thread the needle. He needs to be everywhere at once and do everything at once, and that's just hard," said Jacob Neiheisel, associate professor of political science at the University at Buffalo.

An August Siena University poll found that 40% of likely voters either didn'tknow or have no opinion of Blakeman. Upstate, 43% of "likely" voters said they either didn’t know or have no opinion, according to the poll.

In the same poll, only 5% of likely voters said they didn’t know or had no opinion of his opponent, Democratic incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul.

Political analysts and pollsters say there’s still time, but boosting name recognition will be one of many hurdles Blakeman faces.

"The other downside is it’s a really big state, and that’s going to bring with it lots of challenges of being on the airways, getting known locally," Neiheisel said. 

Blakeman’s campaign team did not respond to a request for comment about his election strategy, but the county executive doesn’t seem fazed by the name recognition issue.

"Kathy Hochul has said that upstate voters aren’t sophisticated in making important decisions, but I know they have the common sense and good judgment to vote for me, a proven leader who will cut taxes, cut utility bills in half and make safer communities," Blakeman told Newsday in an emailed statement.

He’s already won over some upstate voters.

Ryan Culley, 32, of Plattsburgh, a registered Republican, said he’s voting for Blakeman.

"I’m not a liberal, I'm not  commie, and I support America, unlike liberals," he told Newsday. "He supports veterans, he supports police and he wants to cut our electric bills down, which needs to happen. ... I think he’s a good candidate. He supports who I support, so he’s good enough for me."

By the numbers

Hochul held a 10-percentage point lead over Blakeman in the August Siena poll.

She also has the power of incumbency, with not only the name recognition but also the bully pulpit to show voters what she’d do with a second full term, political analysts said.

"Governor Hochul and her coordinated campaign are building an operation to reach all 62 counties with her record of creating good-paying jobs, getting farmers tariff relief, and protecting healthcare," Hochul campaign spokesperson Ryan Radulovacki told Newsday in an emailed statement. The Democrats also are launching weekly canvasses and opening field offices across upstate, he said.

The move comes as Blakeman appears to be gaining some traction.

A June Siena poll found 54% of registered voters didn’t know or had no opinion of Blakeman, down from 64% in March. Siena poll spokesperson Steve Greenberg warned that the polls of registered and "likely" voters can’t be compared because the methodology was different.

Blakeman’s polling among likely voters as of August is close to that of former congressman and now U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin, who ran for governor in 2022, Greenberg said.

An August 2022 Siena poll found 41% of likely voters said they didn’t know or had no opinion of Zeldin, who lost to Hochul by about 6 percentage points that November.

Hurdles

One of the challenges for Blakeman is that he hasn’t held a government position that has produced any attention upstate, said Grant Reeher, a political science professor  at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs. "He has nothing to build on except his candidacy for governor in a race few people expect him to win."

Blakeman also is competing for attention with midterm congressional races and other political stories, which is "making it hard for him to find room in the state’s political sphere to break through and get the attention that he’d need,"  Reeher said.

Democrat Ruth Stone, 73, of Plattsburgh, said she is focusing on the race to fill Rep. Elise Stefanik’s open congressional seat instead of the governor’s race.

"I’m just assuming that Kathy's going to win," said Stone, who said she plans to "vote blue no matter who," though Hochul isn’t her first choice.

Blakeman would benefit if Republican voters similarly decide to vote down the party line, political analysts said.

Another challenge is deciding how much time and effort to put into visiting the more spread-out rural communities upstate, which tend to lean Republican anyway, political analysts said. 

Blakeman should focus on areas with large shares of independent voters, said John V. Kane, an associate professor  at New York University’s Center for Global Affairs. Targeting more densely populated areas is smart and cost-effective given that Blakeman has limited time and resources, he said.

Neiheisel said that, to his credit, Blakeman has been tapping into top conservative radio channels, particularly in western New York, and has yard signs up in outlying areas. "He’s doing what you’re supposed to be doing."

‘Summer mode’

While candidates and campaigns are engaged, many voters won’t be until after Labor Day, political analysts said.

"There is absolutely still time — many voters are still in ‘summer mode’ and are not really thinking about midterm elections yet. That can — and will — change quickly," Kane said.

Larry Duprey, 61, of Champlain, a registered Republican, said he hasn’t thought about the governor’s race, doesn’t know who’s running and plans to explore his options when it gets closer.

Similarly, Woodruff, the Vermontville resident, said she won’t vote for Hochul, but she’s interested in learning more about Blakeman. "I’ll probably look into him more when it gets closer," she said.

Other voters, like Scott Calkins, 49, of Beekmantown, are already ramping up for November.

Calkins, a registered Republican, heard about Blakeman through Trump, whose endorsement helped secure his vote, he said.

"Blakeman is a Republican, and he’s also fighting for lower taxes," said Calkins, who proudly displays a Blakeman yard sign that he got at a local fair. "He’s also fighting for New York State in general as in trying to get costs down, trying to get inflation down and trying to just be a normal person."

He’d like to see more of Blakeman, particularly in the smaller upstate cities, but Calkins said he’s helping to spread the word where he can. "I believe Blakeman will do good for the state."