How Bruce Blakeman's gubernatorial campaign could be helped, or hurt, by President Donald Trump

President Donald Trump’s rally in Syracuse on Friday could boost hard-core Republican enthusiasm for Bruce Blakeman, the party’s candidate for governor, ahead of Election Day, but could also further link him to a president whose popularity is lagging in the state, analysts told Newsday.

With an unpopular war in Iran, rising gas prices and high inflation, Republicans right now are less enthusiastic to turn out than Democrats, according to polls. That Trump is coming to New York for Blakeman for the second time in two months might speak to a need to boost Republican energy, analysts said.

"Most elections hinge on turnout, so this can be best viewed as an attempt to prompt Republicans to turn out in the final stretch" for Blakeman, said Luke Perry, a Utica University political scientist who has written a book about Trump’s impact on the 2018 midterm elections.

"But it's also going to have some negative implications," Perry said. "It's also going to prompt Democrats to turn out and be offsetting to independents, with whom Trump has fallen with nationally."

Republicans typically need a much bigger upstate margin to win statewide — the GOP's Lee Zeldin won upstate by 10 percentage points in 2022 and still lost to Gov. Kathy Hochul.

Statewide, Siena's most recent poll said Hochul leads, 50-41. Marist said it's 53-42.

"Blakeman would need to do exceedingly well upstate" to beat Hochul, Don Levy, director of the Siena Research Institute at Siena University, said in an interview.

Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, is a friend of Trump’s and the president held an event on Long Island in August to boost the campaign.

At the same time, Trump’s approval rating in New York sits at minus 24 points or more, according to polls by Marist University, Siena University and others. Democrat Hochul’s campaign ads hammer Blakeman over his ties to the president. Blakeman has pushed back, saying Trump isn’t on the ballot in New York.

Trump has increased his campaigning ahead of Election Day — especially for congressional candidates. But he’s largely gone to Republican-led "red" states.

"It’s a double-edged sword," said Grant Reeher, a political scientist at Syracuse University. "He’s gotta go somewhere and he wants to campaign for people and he likes doing these rallies because it feeds him.

"Going upstate makes some sense" to campaign for Blakeman, Reeher continued. "Even though [Trump] isn’t terribly popular in New York, he does have a following."

Statewide, just 36% of New Yorkers said they have a favorable view of Trump, while 60% view him unfavorably, according to a recent Marist University poll.

The numbers upstate are slightly better for Trump, with 41% of respondents viewing him favorably, and 55% unfavorably.

If the rally boosts fundraising, that could help Blakeman too — he trails Hochul badly in the money chase.

Trump mostly has focused on congressional races and a former administration aide, Kailee Buller, is the GOP candidate for the Syracuse-area district. But most pollsters and forecasters have said incumbent Rep. John Mannion, a Democrat, appears likely to win reelection, Reeher noted.

Hochul has an array of campaign ads linking Blakeman to Trump. Blakeman has pushed back, saying the governor’s focusing on the president so as to avoid her own record.

"It’s Trump, Trump, Trump — first of all, Trump didn’t make us the highest taxed state, Kathy Hochul did," Blakeman said at recent Buffalo rally. "If I was governor for the last four years and I thought I did a good job, I’d be talking about my record."

But there’s going to be no removing Trump from the race, Marist University pollster Lee Miringoff said. Doing a rally with the president less than a month before Election Day will only reinforce him as an issue, he said.

"It’s a nationalized election," Miringoff said. "Donald Trump casts a long shadow over the race."

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy