Long Island weather: Potential nor'easter could bring rain, wind, flooding; storm's path unclear

High tides caused by a full moon Saturday, coupled with life-threatening rip currents ahead of a potentially developing storm system over the North Atlantic, could lead to minor to moderate flooding, rain and beach erosion this weekend on Long Island, forecasters said.

"Exactly how much rain, how strong any winds will be remains to be seen," National Weather Service meteorologist James Connolly said. "It could be what we think of as a classic nor'easter — or it could be nothing. ... It's still a little far out; we're trying to pinpoint what the exact track will be."

A rip current statement remains in effect through Wednesday evening, which is also when "Multi-cycle minor to localized moderate coastal flooding is possible during times of high tide," the weather service said in a statement Tuesday afternoon.

"The track and intensity of this system remains highly uncertain at this time, and should become better focused [Wednesday] and Thursday," the statement continued.

The weather service forecast discussion describes what is known as a "shortwave" or "shortwave trough" — basically, a disturbance in the mid-to-upper atmosphere that can lead to the development of thunderstorms.

That system, which is still far out in the Atlantic, could be impacted by another system dropping down over Canada. The two systems combined could lead to significant rain and high winds later in the week, especially Saturday and Sunday, according to the weather service.

Connolly said forecasters still aren't certain whether the system will remain north and east of Long Island — remaining over the Atlantic or potentially with a track closer to Cape Cod — or whether it will impact Nassau and Suffolk.

Prediction models show the potential for showers beginning Thursday evening and continuing — maybe building into thunderstorms — Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Some storm tracks show heavier rain in the forecast, while others suggest partly sunny skies could return Sunday.

Winds are forecast to gust upward of 28 mph Thursday evening. Speeds are expected to peak Friday, when sustained winds will blow upward of 30 mph and gust in excess of 40 mph, weather service meteorologist James Tomasini told Newsday.

But based on the storm's track, he added "it's not out of the question for that to trend higher or even lower."

Newsday's Nicholas Grasso contributed to this story.

By John Valenti

john.valenti@newsday.com

John Valenti, a Newsday reporter since 1981, has been honored nationally by the Associated Press, Society of the Silurians and National Headliner Awards for investigative, enterprise and breaking news reporting, as well as column writing. He is the author of “Swee'pea,” about New York playground basketball star Lloyd Daniels. His debut crime novel, “For Nothing Is Hidden,” rooted in 1950s Long Island, was released in October 2025.