Long Island nor'easter update: Lengthy rainfall, strong winds and possibly major costal flooding

A powerful nor'easter is expected to bring prolonged rainfall and high winds through Monday, setting the stage for downed trees and power lines, and possibly significant coastal flooding, forecasters said.

The coastal storm, moving along Long Island’s South Shore could bring up to six inches of rain to some areas, saturating the ground, according to the National Weather Service. Wind gusts of up to 50 mph were expected, and up to 60 mph on the East End. Dangerous rip currents and high surf that could erode South Shore beaches were also predicted, along with coastal flooding of up to three feet in some areas.

"Given long duration wind and rain under full foliage, damaging winds will blow down numerous tree limbs, scattered trees and power lines. Power outages are likely," the weather service said in an advisory late Friday, which also said potentially major coastal flooding was possible on the South Shore.

Meteorologist Dominic Ramunni said "The biggest hazard from this system, on top of the wind, is the coastal flooding. It will be most significant with the morning high tide cycle Saturday and Sunday morning as well."

Gov. Kathy Hochul, along with county executives in Nassau and Suffolk counties, declared a state of emergency as the storm arrived Friday, covering all of Long Island, New York City and Westchester County, deploying resources, including utility crews and swift water rescue teams.

"This is going to be a difficult storm between now and Monday morning," Hochul said. "There will be lots of rain, lots of coastal flooding and some erosion that can lead to downed trees which can mean downed power lines."

The storm could bring ocean waves between 7 to 15 feet on Western Long Island, and between 15 to 22 feet tall on Eastern Long Island, where the Twin Forks are expected to be battered with winds possibly up to 60 mph, state officials and meteorologists said. Waves on Long Island Sound could reach 4 to 7 feet high.

Wind gusts were predicted to increase overnight Friday into Saturday with gusts across most of Long Island with 40 mph, consistently increasing Saturday and reaching gusts of 60 mph on the East End, said Ramuuni.

Forecasters said they were watching the duration of the storm, which could linger into Monday. The storm is expected to ease slightly Sunday, but could have steady rain and winds still consistently at 25 mph, according to the weather service.

The rate of rainfall could be lighter, at less than a half inch per hour, but the duration could total six inches over three days, Ramunni said. Most of Long Island is forecast to see about 3 to 5 inches of rain.

"The wind and coastal flooding could be most impactful Saturday, but we could end up with more rain on Sunday," Ramunni said. "It will be windier Saturday and by Sunday afternoon, things will gradually start to lighten and weaken by Monday."

Long Island officials were urging residents to stay home and take precautions until the storm passes.

Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman and Suffolk County Executive Edward P. Romaine met Friday at the Suffolk Office of Emergency Management in Yaphank, where they signed a joint emergency declaration as they watched the massive storm moving off the coast.

Long Island officials said they would be closely watching the tides, including on Fire Island, where evacuations could come later if conditions worsen.

The Fire Island Ferry suspended service Friday evening and all trips Saturday for the nor’easter, before reassessing schedules Sunday.

"We have not ordered, but may consider ordering an evacuation of Fire Island, depending on the latest weather reports," Romaine said. "We anticipate ocean waves of eight to 12 feet, so that's significant and obviously much less in the bay and the sound."

"If you're on Fire Island, have a plan, because I'd leave now," Romaine said Friday. "Because once the storm starts, it's going to be very difficult to get to you, so secure your house on Fire Island. Plan on leaving if you live further east along the ocean."

Romaine said officials are concerned about low-lying areas, including Center Moriches, Mastic Beach, Shirley, East Patchogue and Lindenhurst.

Authorities said they would prepared for any high water rescues. Suffolk and Nassau police said they would have extra officers to respond to 911 calls and highway emergencies.

In case of evacuations, Nassau County Community College is prepared as an evacuation center. The old family court in Westbury is also offering shelter for the homeless or anyone in need of refuge from the storm, Blakeman said.

High tide is scheduled for 8 a.m. Saturday and again at 8 p.m. Just as critical, the county executives said Friday, are if the nor'easter allows the tides to recede at low tide, or if waves as high as 12 feet could wash ashore.

The county leaders said they were working together to share resources and respond to the storm.

"That is a critical point because at high tide with a full moon, that is going to increase the possibility of flooding," Blakeman said. "This storm is going to be more impactful than originally thought. This is going to be what they call on the higher end of a nor'easter, it'll slowly strengthen

"We are hoping that the first high tide will dissipate, but it depends on the wind direction and the coastal direction of the whether or not the winds are blowing in a certain direction or not. When they're blowing the ocean into the bay, that's when it's a big issue that could create major flooding," he said.

The Metropolitan Transportation Authority does not expect the forthcoming storm will lead to service suspensions on the LIRR, but is taking measures to prevent trees from falling on its tracks, and low-lying train stations from being flooded.

MTA Chairman Janno Lieber and Long Island Rail Road President Rob Free gathered at the transit authority’s lower Manhattan headquarters Friday to update the public on storm preparation measures, which will include deploying crews and equipment, such as chain saws, throughout the system to quickly respond to storm-related incidents.

"Right now, the wind is, by far, our biggest concern, especially after some downed power lines knocked out Main Line service on the Long Island Rail Road a few days ago," Lieber said, referring to Wednesday’s rush hour service suspension caused a pair of PSEG utility poles toppling over onto the LIRR’s tracks near Hicksville.

"We don't want to see any more mishaps or disruptions on the Long Island Rail Road or any other part of our system," Lieber said.

Free said railroad crews have been aggressively clearing away trees and brush near the LIRR’s property that could pose a threat if they fell onto tracks — a problem that could be more likely if the ground becomes saturated with water.

Free said he spoke Wednesday to PSEG President and Chief Operating Officer Scott Jennings, who assured him that the poles that fell on the LIRR’s tracks Wednesday have been replaced and that they, and other nearby poles, have been inspected and are secure. Free said PSEG will also have extra crews available this weekend for "quick responses."

Based on forecasts, LIRR officials "don’t feel it’s necessary" to suspend service ahead of the storm, Free said, as they did in advance of a powerful blizzard in February. If there were any service suspensions, Free said it’s more likely they would be in Eastern Suffolk, where the storm is expected to be more severe and where the LIRR runs fewer trains.

MTA crews are also preparing for the potential for flooding, particularly in low-lying areas, like the LIRR’s Island Park and Far Rockaway stations. Free said the LIRR will have water pumps, high-water more, and plumbers available to address any issues.

Local communities were also taking flood precautions and urging residents to move higher ground, particularly electric vehicles, which are prone to fires or irreparable damage due to flooding.

"Stay home. If you don't have to go out. Stay off the road," Blakeman said. "Only if it's a necessity, go out, and it should be a very important necessity if you go out. Everybody should be tucked in and stay in because again tomorrow it looks like it'll be the most severe part of the weather storm that we are facing."

Long Beach City Council President Brendan Finn robocalled residents with a message to take the storm seriously.

"While this is not a Superstorm Sandy situation, we do ask that you take precautions as we will see impacts," Finn said in the robocall.

"High tides are expected to be four to six feet above normal during the storm. If you live in or near an area that frequently floods, you will experience moderate flooding this weekend. Please move your vehicle to higher ground and store important documents in a safe location."

But Long Beach surfers were enjoying the high waves Friday night before the storm's full brunt hit Long Island. 

"We got in the water about an hour and a half ago and it got better by the end of the day," Thomas Galabraith, 22, of Lavallette, New Jersey, said. "The waves grew in size. The wind just got right on them."

By 6:15 p.m. Michael Sztorc wrapped up his second two-hour stint on his board at Lincoln Beach along the city’s boardwalk. He said the indescribable feeling of entering "the tube," or the curve of an overhanging wave, was worth potentially upsetting some of his real estate clients by canceling meetings.

"There’s been a lot of really good waves, a lot of really good surfers," Sztorc, 30, of Brooklyn, said. "Everyone’s having a really good time because we haven’t had waves in a very long time. ... this is pretty much as good as it gets."

Monte Montenegro, who owns the Strictly Surf shop in Amagansett said he ventured to Long Beach in his camper earlier this week to ride waves upward of 10 feet.

"I’m waiting to see what happens tomorrow morning," Montenegro, 47, of East Hampton, said. " if that storm comes anywhere near the coast and the wind is not so heavy we’ll get good waves again."