Snowfall on Long Island forecast to be below average on heels of 3 mild winters

Forget about stocking up on the rock salt — and, don't pull that snowblower out of mothballs just yet.

Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center said Long Island and the metropolitan area could be in for yet another mild winter — that, on the heels of three of the milder winter seasons in recent times on the Island.

In a three-month prediction forecast released this week by NOAA, the National Weather Service said the seasonal outlook for Nassau and Suffolk this January, February and March should trend toward "above normal" temperatures, while the seasonal precipitation forecast for the period is about average.

"It's a prediction — and obviously weather is very unpredictable," said Matthew Wunsch, a meteorologist based at the weather service office in Upton. "But, what this says is we're anticipating this winter to be slightly above average temperature-wise — which, is what we have been the last couple of years — and that they're not expecting any kind of significant precipitation amounts either above or below average.

"Though," Wunsch said, "that could change."

The predictions follow data showing September was the third-warmest on record at Islip, whose records date to 1963. That, according to the just-released weather service climate card monitoring September weather.

And historic monthly and annual snowfall records available from the weather service — records from Brookhaven National Laboratory that date to 1949 — show the past three winters have been fairly mild, with lower than average snowfall amounts.

The average snowfall total for Long Island is 32.1 inches for the seven-month period running from October to April, according to Brookhaven Lab. Those totals historically include trace amounts for October — and, trace amounts for April.

Much of the totals are recorded between November and March.

Last winter season, data shows Long Island saw about 12.9 inches of snowfall.

For 2023-24 it was 12.7 inches, while in 2022-23 it was 6.5 inches.

The all-time seasonal record for most snowfall in a Long Island winter is 90.75 inches, recorded 30 years ago — in 1995-96.

The lowest amount was 4.5 inches recorded two seasons later, in 1997-98.

Judging by the data, the trends appear almost cyclical. In the winter of 2020-21, Long Island recorded 35.4 inches of snow. The following winter, it saw 30.8 inches. And between 2012 and the winter of 2017-18, the Island saw annual snowfall totals of 51.8, 57.5, 62.2, 35.9, 42.1 and 55.2.

In 2011-12 it saw 5.5 inches of snow. In 2018-19? 15.1 inches.

But, the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information show the most recent trends have leaned toward warmer weather in our area.

In fact, NOAA data shows the Northeast had its warmest year on record in 2024, an average of 2.8 degrees warmer, with New York among seven of the 12 Northeast states — along with Maine, Maryland, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Vermont and West Virginia — having their warmest years on record. That, as Connecticut and New Jersey recorded their second-warmest years; Delaware, its third-warmest.

Although the metropolitan area also had its wettest winter on record in 2023-24, according to NOAA data, those warm temperatures meant the precipitation fell as rain, sometimes even sleet. But, it wasn't snow.

Of course, NOAA said some of its predictions for the coming winter could be affected by an increased likelihood of a La Niña weather system this winter over North America. There is a 71% chance of La Niña surfacing between now and December, NOAA said, which could lead to colder, more-severe weather in some cases, though most likely to our north.

If you wonder how accurate long-range forecasts might be, consider the NOAA Hurricane Center predicted it would be an above average season for hurricanes in 2025, calling for 13 to 18 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes.

So far there have been 10 named storms, four hurricanes and three major hurricanes, Wunsch said. The season ends next month.

As far as the winter ahead, Wunsch said: "We definitely have been in a trend where we've been below average in snowfall, and that has a lot to do with the weather pattern as a whole. The last couple of winters have been promoting warmer temperatures and less systems, less opportunities for snowfall.

"Could that change? Sure. But right now it looks like we're in for a warmer winter with less snow."

Then again, it might not hurt to get some rock salt, just in case.

By John Valenti

john.valenti@newsday.com

John Valenti, a reporter at Newsday since 1981, has been honored nationally by the Associated Press and Society of the Silurians for investigative, enterprise and breaking news reporting, as well as column writing, and is the author of “Swee'pea,” a book about former New York playground basketball star Lloyd Daniels. Valenti is featured in the Emmy Award-winning ESPN 30-for-30 film “Big Shot.”