Amid topsy-turvy Ukraine peace talks, no deal likely

It’s been an extraordinary week in Donald Trump’s quest for peacemaking in Ukraine, between a summit with Vladimir Putin in Alaska a week ago and a White House meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and seven European leaders on Monday. But has anything been accomplished — and which way is Trump pivoting now?

The twists and turns have been dizzying. The Alaska summit seemed to confirm the worst fears of those who thought Trump was in Putin’s pocket: The red-carpet welcome for the Russian dictator, Trump grinning as if he had just met his childhood hero, and Trump’s subsequent statements in which he seemed to revert to blaming Ukraine for getting into the war and urged Zelenskyy to "make a deal" — that is, give away Ukrainian lands Putin wants — because Russia is bigger and stronger.

Yet the meeting on Monday revived the hopes of Ukraine supporters. Zelenskyy got a warm welcome. The Europeans — who included NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte — presented a united front committed to Ukraine’s defense. Trump, for the first time, signaled that the United States would join in providing security guarantees for Ukraine after the war is over, though it’s unclear so far what the American role would be. The consensus seems to be that, while Ukraine would not join NATO, it would have protection equivalent to NATO’s Article 5: a commitment that if it is attacked, NATO countries would join in its defense.

The other big thing to come out of Monday’s meeting was Trump’s assertion — after a mid-meeting call to Putin — that the Russian autocrat had agreed to meet with Zelenskyy to negotiate an end to the war.

And now the latest twist: According to Russia, the Putin/Zelenskyy meeting isn’t happening — at least, not anytime soon. What’s more, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has made it clear that Russia still stands by the demands it made during the early negotiations in Istanbul in 2022. Those conditions amount to Ukraine’s de facto surrender of its sovereignty: They include drastic restrictions on the size of Ukraine’s military and its arsenal as well the installment of a Russia-friendly regime.

Lavrov also reiterated Russia’s categorical rejection of foreign peacekeepers in Ukraine and asserted that Russia must be part of any arrangements guaranteeing Ukraine’s future security. That’s a bit like suggesting that a neighborhood watch program must include the gang that has been terrorizing the neighborhood.

In other words: It looks like there will be no peace deal for now. Perhaps to drive that point home, Russia carried out massive drone and missile strikes at Ukraine — and, more specifically, at a U.S. factory on Ukrainian soil — Wednesday night. Trump’s latest social media posts suggest that he’s back to being annoyed at Putin. But we’ll see if this translates into the tough sanctions he has threatened. In the best-case scenario, Ukraine will also get the deal Zelenskyy has proposed: $100 billion worth of U.S. arms shipments paid for by Europe as well as a $50 billion joint drone production project.

Will this horrific war end anytime soon? There is no doubt that both armies are exhausted, and the civilian population in Russia as well as Ukraine is starting to feel the pain. Fundamentally, the war continues because of one man: Putin. It will end when Putin gets the message that the war is not only unwinnable for him, but too costly to continue. The U.S. can certainly play a major role in conveying that message. It is not clear as yet whether Trump can deliver it.

Opinions expressed by Cathy Young, a writer for The Bulwark, are her own.

By Cathy Young

Cathy Young is a writer for The Bulwark.