Momentum changes as Ukraine seeks peace through strength

Just a few months ago, it seemed all but certain that Ukraine was slowly  but inexorably losing its war against the Russian invasion.

Russia, it was widely believed, was going to overwhelm Ukraine’s defenders with its crew advantage — and with Vladimir Putin’s ruthless willingness to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of Russian lives to his goal of capturing, at the very least, the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine. Those of us who cautioned against counting out Ukraine were often accused of wishful thinking.

Now, the momentum has changed dramatically — as even Donald Trump appears to recognize in his surprisingly positive meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the NATO summit.

Putin seems to be the only person still insisting that Russian troops in Eastern Ukraine are relentlessly moving forward. Even Russian war-hawk bloggers, in an environment in which posts perceived as subversive to the war effort may lead to fines and prison time, now routinely mock his claims.

Not only Western analysts and Russian dissidents but even the more honest Russian pro-war observers acknowledge that the Russian offensive has mostly stalled. Ukraine is using drones to make up for the shortage of men and turning strips of land into “kill zones” where attempts to advance are quickly cut short. Russian claims to have taken various towns and cities have repeatedly proved embarrassingly false, including Putin’s latest suggestion that his troops had captured the city of Kostyantynivka. Meanwhile, Ukrainians are regaining some previously lost territories.

What has really made a difference, though, is Ukraine’s use of drones and long-range missiles — now domestically produced. Crimea, the peninsula whose annexation in 2014 became Putin’s proudest achievement, is mostly cut off from the Russian mainland and approaching catastrophic conditions because of severe fuel shortages. Besides the blow to Russian morale, this affects the supply lines for Russian troops in Ukraine.

Fuel shortages are also plaguing virtually every Russian region because of Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries all over the country — including Moscow and St. Petersburg. One result is surging discontent among a population trained for passivity. Even in a dictatorship, mass discontent is something to fear.

Not only ordinary Russians but the elites are more and more open about wanting the war to end — even on terms that may be considered unfavorable to Russia. When Zelenskyy recently announced a 40-day “operation” to pressure Russia into choosing peace, he was likely counting on Putin’s entourage to either persuade him to end the war or remove him.

What can the West, including the United States, do? Despite Trump’s new Ukraine-friendly stance, the American president, who had phone calls with both Zelenskyy and Putin last weekend, still credits the Russian dictator’s supposed desire to end the war — despite Putin’s recent admission that he has turned down ceasefire offers from Ukraine.

Military aid to Ukraine, for both defense and offense, remains essential. NATO has just pledged $70 billion in aid. But especially important is the announcement that Norway, joined by Denmark, Germany and Canada, will order $306 million worth of Patriot interceptor missiles for Ukraine from the U.S.; with Russia trying to punish Ukraine by killing civilians in Kyiv and other cities, these defense systems are essential. Trump has also said that he will allow Ukraine to manufacture its own Patriots.

The only peace that can work in Ukraine is peace through strength. Ukraine has displayed plenty of it, along with ingenuity and determination. The West needs to match that strength.

Opinions expressed by Cathy Young, a writer for The Bulwark, are her own.

By Cathy Young

Cathy Young is a writer for The Bulwark.