Credit on crime is in the eye of the voter
President Donald Trump with Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman at the county police training and intelligence center in Uniondale last week. Credit: Newsday / Howard Schnapp
Crime and policing always prove important in New York State elections. In 2022, the state bail reforms of 2019, which had become widely unpopular amid a scary crime spike during and after the height of COVID-19, gave Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin a useful angle of attack in challenging Gov. Kathy Hochul.
Four years and one election later, Hochul seems to have gone as far as the Democratic legislature would allow in modifying the bail laws to give judges greater discretion to set cash bail, especially against repeat offenders and for property crimes.
Mindful of crime as a possible liability in a general election, the Hochul reelection campaign has beefed up her image on policing. She touts in her record a $4 billion state investment in public safety programs and more importantly, cites an overall drop in major crimes, which is reflected nationwide.
For elected Democrats, even left-wing New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, the memory of “Defund the police” chants grow ever fainter, except when Republicans remind them of it. For Hochul, crime still is a rough road.
The most recent Siena Research Institute poll shows Hochul ahead of challenger Bruce Blakeman but with a more divided opinion on who would keep New Yorkers safe. On that question, Hochul was tabulated as ahead 47%-44%, and only 1 point ahead on the matter of “addressing undocumented immigrants living in New York.”
By contrast, Siena reported their sample of likely voters finding Hochul stronger by 16 percentage points on increasing affordable housing and by 7 points on making prices more affordable.
That’s the context in which President Donald Trump appeared Friday on the home turf of Blakeman, the Nassau County executive. Trump essentially used the county’s police academy as a political safe space to deliver an accusatory partisan speech. Behind him were uniformed police officers, cadets and other law enforcement personnel.
Utilizing cops as political props is ordinarily frowned upon for the authoritarian message it signals. But Trump trashes such norms for useful photo ops.
Without evidence Trump claimed: “The radical left Gov. Kathy Hochul has been very, very bad on crime, a nightmare for crime.” He also claimed credit for FBI statistics showing the latest plunge in violent crimes, but this included states and cities led by Democratic elected officials.
As with the economy, all incumbent politicians like to claim credit when crime trends are good and cast blame when they are not. The statistics, when dissected, have a way of becoming a buzzkill for them because there is always a jumble of factors involved and no single leader, policy or party responsible for the change of direction.
Officials have said the national drop began in 2023 and then accelerated. The FBI reports that from 2024 to 2025, the estimated volume of violent crime decreased some 9.3%.
Experts have suggested explanations of what helped on various fronts regardless of who was in charge. Beefing up police forces in the wake of departures due to burnout. Improved economic conditions including employment. Intensive gun enforcement and confiscations. Broader insurance coverage for psychological care of mental illness and staffing in mental health clinics. Increased electronic surveillance in public spaces. And in New York City, improved police presence in the subways.
Differences of opinion about how to keep a positive trend going are hard to resolve — but a better problem for incumbents to have than they did four years ago.
Columnist Dan Janison’s opinions are his own.
Dan Janison is a member of the Newsday editorial board.
