The U.S. has enough missiles for this war but not the next one

The decline of missile stockpiles, which spurred the Department of Defense’s arm-twisting in January for Lockheed Martin Corp. and RTX Corp. to boost production, is worsening by the day.

Modern warfare is all about missiles, interceptors, stealth aircraft and drones. Thanks to companies like Lockheed, RTX, Northrop Grumman Corp. and other defense companies, the U.S. military has at its disposal the most sophisticated and capable of these offensive and defensive weapons. The downside is that they are expensive to operate and complex to manufacture. The U.S. and its allies won’t run out of this high-dollar ammunition during this latest conflict with Iran, but the stockpile concern should be a wake-up call to build up supplies. The next conflict may require even more projectiles, and ample stockpiles can act as a deterrent to conflict.

"One challenge is that AMD assets are useful tools for deterrence signaling, both to provide assurance and protection for allies and to deter adversaries," according to a December report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, referring to air and missile defenses. "Whenever the United States has a foreign policy problem, it seems like the solution is to deploy an AMD asset."

Iran’s ability to inflict harm on its neighbors in the Middle East had already been degraded during the 12 days of bombing by the U.S. and Israel in June. In the latest attacks, a barrage of ATACMS — or Army Tactical Missile System — and Tomahawk cruise missiles, complemented by stealth fighters and bombers, wiped out most of Iran’s command centers, air defense systems and missile launchers in the first few days. After a few days, air superiority over Iran was achieved, which reduces drastically the need to launch these expensive missiles. ATACMS and Tomahawk missiles cost more than $1 million each.

With air superiority, the conflict enters a second stage in which non-stealth aircraft, such as F-15s, patrol Iranian skies in search of lingering launchers and to take down the slow-moving Shahed drones. These drones present a challenge because they are inexpensive to produce and more easily concealed. Still, Iran’s ability to strike at neighbors is declining hour by hour as U.S. and Israeli warplanes hunt for targets.

This stage also eases the pressure on missile defense systems, such as the Patriot Advanced Capability defense system and the even more capable Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD. These systems are in high demand as more countries seek to protect themselves against missile strikes as geopolitical tensions rise.

The interceptors fired by the systems are even more costly than missiles and raise the most concern over stockpile depletion. The Patriot interceptors run about $4 million each, and that cost jumps to about $13 million for each THAAD interceptor. The systems launch multiple interceptors to counter one incoming missile to ensure the target is hit. The math on both expense and inventory becomes lopsided quickly if Patriot interceptors are used to down an Iranian winged drone that may cost less than $50,000 to produce.

In January, Lockheed agreed to a long-term deal to increase annual production capacity of Patriot interceptors to 2,000 a year from 600 and to boost output of THAAD interceptors to 400 a year from 96. In February, RTX entered a similar seven-year agreement to boost production of Tomahawks and AMRAAMs, which are missiles fired from aircraft, and to increase output of interceptors fired by the Aegis ballistic missile defense system that’s used mostly on ships.

This is a positive step toward replenishing stockpiles, but not enough. There should be bipartisan support to send a clear, long-term demand signal for defense companies to produce more.

During the campaign in June in which U.S. and Israeli missiles and aircraft bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities and took out air defenses, more than 100 THAAD interceptors are estimated to have been launched, which would be equivalent to about 20% of stockpiles, the CSIS report said. Inventory of Patriot interceptors are in better shape because the U.S. has produced an average of 270 of these interceptors annually over the last decade. The actual stockpile numbers are classified, and CSIS’s calculations are based on defense budgets and estimates on use.

The stockpile depletion for this latest action won’t be clear until the operation has concluded. The intense use of smart missiles and interceptors likely only lasted for the first few days of the conflict before air superiority was established. The air-to-ground missiles are much less expensive and don’t face the same inventory constraints.

The urgency to expand stockpiles arises from the next hypothetical conflict in which air superiority isn’t so easily gained and against an adversary that has much more capacity to launch missiles than Iran. Russia, which has been pounding Ukraine for four years, and China come to mind.

This second Cold War is potentially more dangerous than the first one because China, which has supported both Iran, Russia and North Korea, has a much more developed manufacturing base than the old Soviet Union. In fact, China’s manufacturing prowess is unmatched in the world while the U.S. has allowed its industrial base to be hollowed out over the years as supply chains splintered and moved overseas.

A solution to deal with low-cost drones and increased production of all kinds of munitions is urgent for the next conflict, not this one. Large stockpiles act as a deterrent to hostilities. Right now, the thin inventories of missiles and interceptors could become an invitation for more aggression from adversaries.

This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners. Thomas Black is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist writing about the industrial and transportation sectors. He was previously a Bloomberg News reporter covering logistics, manufacturing and private aviation.