What can Long Island learn from the Texas tragedy?

The refrain following devastating floods on July 4 in Texas Hill Country, where at least 121 people died and 170 are still missing, is that no one saw it coming.

Yet, the Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority published in 1999 an eerily prescient guide for staying safe from floods in the Guadalupe River Basin after a 1998 flood that killed 12 people.

“If a flood of this size and intensity had occurred in the middle of the night instead of during the day, the death toll would have been higher,” the guide reads. “ . . . The next flood, and there will be another, could be even more severe . . . the Guadalupe Basin rivers will flood again.”

For Texas, the lessons of 1998 were forgotten despite the history of “Flash Flood Alley” as one of the regions in the country most susceptible to quick, rising waters, especially at night when people are asleep. For decades, efforts to establish an alert system for the remote area failed.

The question should be: Why didn’t anyone see it coming?

Local municipal officials who are now taking the brunt of the criticism said forecasts didn’t call for such dangerous rains, and warnings didn’t come until the waters were waist high. Meteorologists, however, said the forecasts were timely and accurate. Some Democrats are blaming federal cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and some Republicans are accusing Democrats of politicizing tragedy. What’s obscured by the blame game is what we must learn from this tragedy to better prepare communities to mitigate loss of life and property when natural disasters strike.

TEXAS FLOOD PREDICTABLE

The flood may have been unpredictable in its intensity, but its occurrence wasn’t. The Guadalupe River Basin has had at least 10 major floods in the past century. The river rose at least 26 feet in 45 minutes and reached 147,000 cubic feet per second near Camp Mystic. For context, the Hoover Dam capacity is 118,000 cfs for power generation. The 1998 flood — the impetus for the Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority report — reached 473,000 cfs in Cuero, a town about 150 miles southeast of Camp Mystic.

Data such as this, analyzed by meteorologists, is among our best tools for future forecasts and warnings around the nation. That’s why the Trump administration should reverse its recent decisions to walk away from data collection efforts.

New York’s statewide weather detection system, Mesonet, recently lost a $3 million grant from the Department of Homeland Security. The system has 127 towers across the state, and several on Long Island, including in Wantagh and East Hampton. The towers collect weather data, which is then used to “ . . . improve forecast accuracy, reduce uncertainty, and mitigate harm,” according to the NYS Early Warning Weather Detection System website.

The White House also has prioritized dismantling NOAA as Republicans for decades have pushed to privatize the federal agency. But forecasts and long-range assessments of trends can’t be made into a pay-per-view business. Government responsibility, first and foremost, is to keep people safe.

It’s too early to say what impact the cuts already made by the Trump administration will have on NOAA’s ability to forecast future weather events and meteorological trends. Critics appear to be rushing to judgment with claims that the cuts resulted in fewer staff on duty during the floods, and charging that this led to poor-quality forecasts and a lack of warnings for central Texas. But it’s troubling that the warning-coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Austin-San Antonio office took an early retirement because of job eliminations. The position, which links local forecasters with emergency responders, hasn’t been filled.

As it turns out, forecasts and warnings from the Texas Division of Emergency Management and the National Weather Service were there on July 2 and 3. But a coordinated response to the threat was not.

LI NEEDS ALERT SYSTEM

Now, Texas officials say the state will pay to install sirens along the Guadalupe River after refusing to do so for years. Several county, local and water authority boards and the camp’s directors over the last decade were either denied funding or gave up trying to get grants to install sirens and other warning systems.

Let’s not make that mistake here. There is likely no perfect and error-free way to forecast natural disasters and effectively warn the public. But we should try. Now’s the time for Long Island’s leaders to consider whether a special alert or siren system is needed here.

Superstorm Sandy and the August 2024 micro storms, which broke the dam that drained Stump Pond in Smithtown’s Blydenburgh Park are flashing lights warning us of the increasing danger from warmer temperatures.

Storms have become more frequent, and downpours more intense. Hurricanes are the clearest threats to Long Island but these quickly developing storms could be just as destructive.

Nassau and Suffolk have emergency management departments that prepare for natural disasters, as do towns and villages. But will they work when tested? Texas is considered one of the best states for emergency management, yet disaster response there remains a struggle.

Authorities on Long Island should hold a regional summit in the near future to strengthen emergency coordination between responders and weather forecasters. A comprehensive system is needed to spread alerts to Long Islanders along the coastlines, canals, rivers and flood-prone areas. That may include installing loud sirens to reach those who are asleep or without cellphones or to address times when service is down.

We shouldn’t have to wait for a report, after a natural disaster, to know that we are susceptible to such devastating destruction. Let’s act now to make Long Island better prepared to handle the next natural disaster.