Blue wave laps at Long Island

Daily Point

Local turnout strong as area seats may turn blue 

As the race for governor was called for Gov. Kathy Hochul just after the polls closed at 9 p.m., all eyes turned to the local races on Long Island.

Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, the GOP gubernatorial candidate, is expected to potentially have a "single digit victory" in the Long Island vote totals but he wasn't able to put together the voting blocs needed to counterbalance the New York City vote to win statewide.

Locally, the results were not as clear-cut, but the turnout was strong. In Nassau County, by about 8 p.m., about 300,000 voters had come out on Tuesday. That included 110,048 Democrats, 102,239 Republicans and 82,275 blanks.

Within the county, all eyes were on the Town of North Hempstead, where Democrats were outpacing Republicans most of the day. By about 8 p.m., the town had seen 38,702 voters on Election Day, including 14,435 Democrats and 11,663 Republicans. That boded well for Democrats, but as usual, the decision will come down to the unaffiliated voters known as "blanks." There were 12,086 of them who came out to vote in North Hempstead as of Tuesday evening. How they break will determine the outcome.

But those involved in the local races said they expect the blanks to at least split and probably tilt toward the Democrats this year. That could help Democrat Sean Michael McCarthy, who is running for North Hempstead Town supervisor against incumbent Jennifer DeSena, who runs on the Republican line.

Democrats were hopeful by Tuesday evening that McCarthy could win, returning the town supervisor seat to Democratic hands. Also on their watch list: Democrat Kim Keiserman, who is running for the Assembly against Republican David Hassid in what is an open seat in AD16, in the Port Washington area. The seat has changed hands over the years. It's currently held by Republican Daniel Norber, who did not seek reelection. Norber barely beat Democrat Gina Sillitti two years ago.

But it may be unlikely for that momentum in North Hempstead to carry over to help Democrat Rory Lancman defeat Republican Jake Blumencranz for the 7th State Senate District seat left open by State Sen. Jack Martins' departure. That, sources said, may remain Republican held even if the town supervisor and Assembly seats turn blue.

In assessing the early vote, combined with the returns Tuesday, Nassau watchers said they were also hopeful that Democrat Juleigh Chin could prevail over incumbent Republican Scott Strauss for the Nassau Legislature's 9th District, which covers the Mineola area. Other legislative races to be watched include LD18, where Graham Musynske, a Democrat, is challenging GOP incumbent Samantha Goetz, and LD12, where Democrat Michael Vanunu is challenging Republican incumbent Michael Giangregorio in the Bellmore-Merrick area. And then there's Long Beach, where city offices and the county legislative seat have been in play: GOP Legis. Patrick Mullaney could lose to challenger Michael Pentola.

If McCarthy, Keiserman and Chin prevail, Nassau Democrats might consider this Election Day a success. They're less hopeful about gaining ground in the Town of Hempstead, although political watchers are paying particular attention to areas like Baldwin and Hempstead, where turnout was apparently high. And they're keeping an eye on the 9th State Senate District, currently held by State Sen. Patricia Canzoneri-Fitzpatrick, who is facing Democrat Lisa Vider.

— Randi F. Marshall randi.marshall@newsday.com

Pencil Point

Surviving the spinmeisters

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Final Point

Election Day voting casts a 'red' shadow over Suffolk

Comparing early voting numbers to day-of statistics proved at least one thing — Republicans surged in Suffolk when it counted.

Democrats went into Election Day with higher turnout than Republicans in early voting. That changed at the polls Tuesday.

According to Suffolk County Board of Elections data, Democrats cast 41.6% of all votes during the early voting period compared with Republicans accounting for 31.9% of all early voting. Blanks or unaffiliated voters made up 24.2% of all early voting.

Based on those numbers, some political prognosticators were predicting a blue wave on Long Island.

But day-of voting cast a red shadow over Suffolk. GOP chair Jesse Garcia's get-out-the-vote efforts, which included a visit by House Speaker Mike Johnson last week, resulted in Republicans flocking to polling sites. In figures as of 6 p.m. out of Suffolk, Republicans cast 37.1% of all votes on Election Day compared with Democrats casting 31.6% of all votes on Election Day. Blanks made up 28.6% of all votes cast.

Riverhead Town day-of and early voting numbers combined to hint at potential trouble for Supervisor Jerry Halpin, an independent running for reelection on the Democratic line. As of 6 p.m., Republicans made up 38.3% of the vote total in Riverhead compared with Democrats accounting for 30.2% of the vote. Blanks made up 24.7%.

Smithtown, a Republican stronghold, showed GOP enthusiasm with 44.1% of the base voting. That's an increase from 2024, one of the few areas in Suffolk where Republican turnout was higher this year than in 2022 or 2024.

Republican State Sen. Anthony Palumbo's seat was rumored last week to be in play, and day-of voting plus early voting stats seemed initially to hint in that direction. As of 6 p.m., Democrats made up 37.6% of all votes cast in SD1 compared with 32.5% of votes being cast by Republicans. There were 23.8% votes cast by blank voters. There were 5,800 more registered Democrats voting than registered Republicans. Assuming blanks are evenly split, Palumbo could be looking at an upset.

In the 3rd Assembly District, early voting stats from last week leaned Democrat, but day-of voting wiped away any of those possible gains. As of 6 p.m., Republicans made up 35.4% of all voters compared with 34.8% of all voters being Democrats. Blanks comprised 23.4% of all voters in AD3.

In AD7, an open seat contested by Democrat Trish Kopp and Republican DawnMarie Lentz-Kuhn, currently an Islip Town councilwoman, Republican turnout surged with 40.4% of all votes being cast by Republicans as of 6 p.m. Democrats made up 29.8% of all votes while blanks made up 23% of all votes.

Democrats have their hopes pinned on AD12, an open seat, this one contested by Democrat Craig Herskowitz and Republican Dave Weber. Early voting and day-of voting favors Democrats since they made up 36.5% of all votes while GOP voters made up 33.4% of all Election Day votes as of 6 p.m. Blanks comprised 24.4% of all votes in AD12.

In congressional districts, the early voting and day-of statistics didn't lean heavily either way, which means blanks will have the final say.

Day-of voting turnout combined with early voting in the 1st Congressional District, held by Republican Nick LaLota, slightly favored Republicans. As of 6 p.m. in Suffolk's CD1, Republicans made up 35.3% of the total votes cast while Democrats comprised 34.9% of all votes. Blanks made up 23.8% of the vote in CD1.

In CD2, held by Republican Andrew Garbarino, Democrats comprised 37.4% of all votes cast in early voting and day-of voting combined while Republicans made up 34.2% of all votes. Blanks made up 22.7% of all votes. Early voting results on the Nassau County Board of Elections website have Garbarino leading with 61.8% of the vote, a strong showing that might propel him over the top.

In Suffolk, based on early voting plus day-of voting numbers, Democrats were motivated in 2026. More Democrats by percentage of total votes cast voted in every congressional district, State Senate and Assembly district this year compared with 2022 and 2024.

Day-of voting statistics don't count anyone who voted in the final hours of Election Day, which could be a significant percentage of the overall vote since polls were open until 9 p.m.

Keep in mind, in both 2022 and 2024, more Republicans voted in Suffolk than Democrats. This year, that trend appears to have reversed countywide, at least in the hours before polls closed. What it means for local races is still being counted. And as often happens, blank voters ultimately make the difference.

— Mark Nolan mark.nolan@newsday.com

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