Dem party fight comes down to 'the gubes'

Daily Point

Does victory already belong to Schaffer?

Did Suffolk County Democratic Party chair Rich Schaffer make a "mission accomplished" blunder, or a shrewd insider move to hobble competition?

Depends on who you ask.

Last month, Schaffer all but declared victory in the unprecedented battle for his leadership position in a Facebook post. Never mind that the election for county party chair won’t be held until September at the earliest, and voting in 81 election districts for committee positions takes place June 23.

For Schaffer, victory is all but certain despite a spirited challenge from Southold Democratic Party chair Kathryn Casey Quigley, who says she’s gotten some 400 Dems to volunteer for open committee member positions.

In the social media post, Schaffer said that regardless of the outcome of the June 23 primaries for election district committee positions, he can’t possibly lose.

"… Team Schaffer has secured well over the majority of committee members for the entire Suffolk County Democratic Committee. There’s still primaries ahead but here’s the thing — our lead can only increase from here.”

Hold on a hot second, says Casey Quigley.

The way she sees it, the numbers shake out to a third who support Schaffer, a third who back her and the final third who are undecided.

“He’s giving the illusion of having already won to keep people in his corner,” Casey Quigley told The Point. “But he has nowhere near that level of support.”

But three Suffolk Democratic Party insiders told The Point the election isn’t a straight vote and the numbers don’t support Casey Quigley. Voting will be based on gubernatorial percentage totals for the county, known colloquially as “the gubes".

With gubernatorial percentage voting, each election district is assigned a weighted percentage of the total votes cast on the Democratic Party line for governor based on the results in the last gubernatorial election. And that’s not even the tricky part. There’s all kinds of inside baseball statistics, machinations and maneuvering that has even some longtime political strategists baffled.

“By my count, Rich has about two-thirds of the total gubes score,” a source said. “It’s not a 1-to-1 vote matrix. And even if it were, she wouldn’t have the votes.”

It’s a swirling cauldron of confusion and misdirection; an enigma wrapped in a mystery.

Regardless, simply notifying Democrats which committee position candidate to support based on their support for either Schaffer or Casey Quigley is convoluted. Once in the voting booth, how do Democrats know which committee member candidate will support Schaffer or Casey Quigley?

“That is the million dollar question!” another county Democratic Party source told The Point.

The source added that party leaders have been texting and emailing Democrats with names of which committee member candidates back Schaffer or Casey Quigley.

Even placement on the June 23 ballot is confusing. One source told The Point that names were placed randomly on the ballot for each election district rather than straight order of rows as is done in general elections. So, if there are four candidates competing for two committee member positions in one election district, there’s no way to tell by only looking at the ballot who supports who based on their position on the ballot.

And the county website listing the candidates in the June 23 Democratic Party election district races omits at least one race, ED10 in East Hampton.

The consternation fun doesn’t end there. If a committee member isn’t present for the in-person election for county chair, the other committee member for that election district gets their share of the gubes for that election district.

“Rich has been doing this for a very long time and most of the high gubes are loyal to the party infrastructure and Rich,” one party source said. Election districts with high total number of registered Democrats get higher percentages of the gubes and are worth more in the election for chair, the source said.

Another party source said Casey Quigley faces an almost insurmountable battle because of the gubes voting. “He’s the Goliath, she’s the David, and he’s a pretty powerful guy in political circles.” But, the source added, Casey Quigley has done something unheard of: mount a legitimate challenge to Schaffer’s leadership.

As Schaffer hoists the trophy ahead of the election, Casey Quigley said voting still matters since she’s made gains in the larger Suffolk towns like Huntington and Brookhaven. “Whether I win or lose, every town committee has been transformed,” Casey Quigley said. “These are people … willing to build the party. It’s a good problem to have.”

— Mark Nolan mark.nolan@newsday.com

Pencil Point

Too much

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Final Point

Of pardons and partisanship

Reflexive partisanship can get prickly when a politician lashes out at a rival for doing something one of their allies also did. It’s a “people who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones” kind of pitfall.

Take, for example, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, the Republican running for governor this November against Democrat Kathy Hochul. Blakeman issued a self-described “blistering attack” on Hochul Thursday for nominating Alexander Dockery to the State Commission of Correction. Blakeman decried the widely expected appointment that requires State Senate confirmation as evidence of Hochul being soft on crime since she granted Dockery clemency in late 2023.

“In Kathy Hochul’s New York, if you commit a crime, she won’t just let you out early — she’ll give you the keys to the prison,” Blakeman said in a news release titled, “The Inmates Are Running the Asylum in Kathy Hochul’s New York.”

Point, Blakeman. It’s an easy slam dunk to bolster his tough-on-crime stance that plays well with red voters and many independents.

But Blakeman’s benefactor in D.C., President Donald Trump, did the same thing. Over and over. There’s not enough ink to list them all.

One example, however, stands out as a replica of Hochul’s move.

On the last day of his first term, Trump pardoned a former federal inmate who was later made second in command of the federal Bureau of Prisons.

Joshua J. Smith, a Tennessee businessman who founded an inmate advocacy and rehabilitation nonprofit, was sworn in as deputy director of the BOP on June 9, 2025, to oversee 122 facilities, 36,000 employees and 156,000 federal inmates, according to the bureau’s website.

Smith, who was convicted on drug charges and released from prison in 2003 after serving five years, “dedicated his life to his faith and to his community,” according to a 2021 statement from the White House.

A Trump official said last year that Smith was “uniquely positioned to advocate for the resources and reforms front-line staff need to do their jobs safely and effectively.”

When Hochul commuted Dockery’s sentence, he had already served 23 years of a 25-to-life sentence for nonviolent burglaries and trespassing. New York last year required that its Commission of Correction have at least one formerly incarcerated person serving, a move adopted after the beating death of an inmate at Marcy Correctional Facility.

A Hochul spokesperson, in a statement to The Point, said Blakeman is being hypocritical. “Bruce Blakeman ... gives Trump a pass for pardoning violent, cop-beating insurrectionists, why he had no problem with Trump’s billion dollar slush fund for January 6ers, and why he let violent crime spike to a ten-year high under his watch.”

If Blakeman’s assertion that Hochul is unfit for office because she gave a criminal “the keys to the prison,” will he repudiate Trump for pardoning Smith? Glass houses break easily.

— Mark Nolan mark.nolan@newsday.com

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