David Lennon: MLB trade-deadline deals that have worked out, and those that have not

Was it better to buy or sell at this year’s trade deadline? Looking at the MLB standings, it can be difficult to figure out.

The Orioles dealt away All-Star catcher Adley Rutschman, starter Dean Kremer, two relievers and slugger Taylor Ward, yet stood only three games back from the American League’s third wild card. The Tigers traded Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize — obviously waving the white flag — yet are hanging on at 5 1/2 games behind.

Over in the National League, the Marlins sent Liam Hicks, a big-bat catcher, to the Rays but still manage to be on the periphery of the third wild card at four games back. The Pirates made a concerted effort to add — trading for relievers Luke Weaver, Kirby Yates and Camilo Doval — but immediately sunk like a rock to 7 1/2 games back.

That’s not to say, however, the aggressive buyers didn’t significantly help themselves. While the AL playoff picture remains muddled in mediocrity — with the AL West title and the third wild card possibly going to a .500 team (or worse) — the legit contenders definitely improved at the deadline. As to how much, we’ve included some updates nearly a month later, a decent enough sample size to gauge the impacts of those deals.

Check out the list below (stats are through Thursday’s games):

Freddy Peralta (Mets to Rays)

The Mets’ winter bust figured to be a potential reclamation project for the pitching-savvy Rays, but Peralta has been a mixed bag so far, at 1-2 with a 5.60 ERA in five starts for the AL East leaders. He actually had been much worse before firing six scoreless innings, allowing two hits and striking out four, in Wednesday’s 3-0 win over the Tigers, so maybe there’s still time for a rebound — and possibly improving his free-agent market.

Tarik Skubal (Tigers to Dodgers)

The undisputed prize of this year’s deadline stumbled a bit after joining the Dodgers, with a 4.09 ERA through his first two starts. But Skubal soon settled into his back-to-back Cy Young self, striking out 18 over his next two while allowing four runs over 13 innings (2.77 ERA). Interestingly, Skubal threw 109 and 106 pitches in those two starts, his highest counts of the season.

Casey Mize (Tigers to Padres)

Mize was part of a Padres pitching coup that also included Robbie Ray, but he put a scare into San Diego’s playoff hopes by stumbling down the dugout steps last Saturday, resulting in a sprained right ankle. Maybe Mize was just shell-shocked after teeing up three solo homers in the first two innings, leaving him with a 7.00 ERA through his first four starts.

Clay Holmes (Mets to Cubs)

Holmes is making good on the prediction that he’d be the Mets’ most valuable trade chip, regardless of the fractured fibula. He’s been the perfect addition for the pitching-starved Cubs, with a 1.96 ERA over four starts, and the sinker-specialist has allowed just one run over his last 19 innings. On Tuesday, Holmes allowed two hits over seven scoreless innings against the Diamondbacks. His free-agent stock, already high, is rising fast.

Luke Weaver (Mets to Pirates)

What a waste. Weaver was arguably the best reliever available, but that turned out to be not much help for the Pirates, as he’s appeared in only six games (6.35 ERA) while Pittsburgh has tumbled to 8-13 since the deadline and pretty much out of the NL wild card race (7 1/2 games behind the third spot). Weaver allowed one earned run over his final 32 innings for the Mets. On Aug. 15, he allowed three in one inning for the Pirates.

Luis Arraez (Giants to Phillies)

The Phillies had MLB’s best record (15-7) since the trade deadline and Arraez is a big reason why as he stays on pace for a fourth batting title. He’s hitting .291 (25-for-86) with five doubles and two homers through his first 21 games since being dealt from the Giants. Just as impressive, Arraez has struck out only three times in 89 plate appearances over that span.

Luis Garcia Jr. (Nationals to Yankees)

Blame GM Brian Cashman for not doing more to shore up the bullpen, but he landed the most impactful deadline bat in Garcia, whose 0.8 WAR in 19 games with the Yankees is nearly as much as Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s (0.9) for the full season (119 games) with the Blue Jays. Garcia was hitting .306 with five homers and a .924 OPS since his trade from the Nationals. His .562 slugging percentage ranks second in the majors.

Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays to Cubs)

Pairing Gausman with Holmes was a great 1-2 deadline punch for the Cubs, and after two sluggish middle starts (9.00 ERA), he bounced back in his fourth, tying his season high with seven scoreless innings, allowing three hits and striking out six,in Monday’s 7-0 win over the Diamondbacks. Gausman, 35, has considered calling it a career after this season, so that could provide some additional motivation in wanting to go out on top with the wild-card leading Cubs.

Adley Rutschman (Orioles to Red Sox)

Rutschman already was on the IL with left wrist inflammation when the Red Sox first acquired him, and after playing just 12 games for Boston, the All-Star catcher is hurting again, this time with right elbow irritation that sidelined him for two games during last week’s series in Miami. When healthy enough to play, Rutschman was batting .146 (6-for-47) with a home run and a .499 OPS. Hardly numbers that make the Yankees regret passing on the steep price the Sox paid to acquire him.

Liam Hicks (Marlins to Rays)

The Rays traded three of their top 30 prospects to land the Marlins catcher and he’s been a great move from the jump. Hicks drilled a grand slam in only his second at-bat for Tampa Bay and is batting .309 (17-for-55) with three homers and a .972 OPS over his first 18 games since the deadline. Not only that, the contact-driven Hicks has an 8.8 strikeout rate since joining the Rays, making him a perfect fit to their small-ball approach.

Tyrone Taylor (Mets to Cubs)

The Cubs acquired Taylor to be the same platoon fourth outfielder he was with the Mets — a role he excelled at in Flushing and is continuing to do so on the North Side, where Taylor is hitting .323 (10-for-37) with two doubles and a .793 OPS. Taylor hit four homers over his last 11 games with the Mets, but he has yet to go deep with the Cubs. He’s made only two starts, both in rightfield.

Camilo Doval (Yankees to Pirates)

If there was any lingering doubt that Doval couldn’t handle New York, what he’s done since being traded to Pittsburgh should confirm the diagnosis of him crumbling on the Big Apple stage. Doval, who had a 4.54 ERA with the Yankees, is pitching to a 1.50 ERA in 12 appearances for the Pirates, with 14 strikeouts in 12 innings. He’s also allowed just two hits over his last six appearances, a stretch of six scoreless innings, with a cutter that averaged 98.8 mph in his last outing.

An annual free-agent frenzy for MLB?

Baseball’s interminable free-agent signing period, which now begins in early November and stretches to, well, spring training and beyond, has long been considered problematic — both for the extended dull periods of zero activity during the winter months and the uncertainty for players seeking jobs.

MLB wants what the other sports, like the NBA and NFL, have every summer: an intense, media-crazed signing period that burns fiercely for 48 hours or so and then produces a steady stream of attention-grabbing headlines before eventually fizzling out.

Baseball actually got a taste of this back in 2021, but not under the most favorable circumstances, when roughly $1.4 billion in contracts was handed out in the hours leading up the Dec. 1 lockout. Then, of course, labor issues shut down the sport entirely, so it was not an ideal scenario.

Expect a similar shopping spree this year with the current labor strife and expiring CBA. But MLB is hoping to make those conditions permanent to a degree with their recent proposal of two “Quiet Periods” for the offseason, according to MLB.com. The first would stretch from five days after the World Series (the time allotted for decisions on player contract options) until noon ET the Monday of the winter meetings (which is usually early December). It would only apply to free agents. Trades could still be made as well as players re-signing with their same teams.

The official free agent signing period would then open with the winter meetings and run through Dec. 21, a span of about two to three weeks, before MLB imposes a “Frozen Period” that would bar any transactions or contracts involving major league players until the first Monday in February.

Sounds like a reasonable solution. Problem is, the agents — a driving force behind the MLBPA’s labor stance — don’t want any imposed restrictions on free-market conditions because that would hurt their leverage for negotiations. This is not as much of an issue for the other sports because they have salary caps, so you see how this becomes a problem with baseball. And why we’re still probably a long way from getting a shorter free agent winter in the next CBA.