Erik Boland: Yankees' prolonged Aaron Judge absence isn't a death sentence
Yankees’ Aaron Judge looks on from the dugout during an MLB baseball game against the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium on Friday. Credit: Kathleen Malone-Van Dyke
Despite the feeling of much of the Yankees’ fan base — reflected by more than a few in the organization, too — black bunting did not hang from the suite level at the Stadium for Friday night’s game against the Red Sox, the club’s first since Thursday night’s bombshell news release stating that Aaron Judge had been diagnosed with a stress fracture of the first rib on his right side.
Flags were not lowered to half-staff in the wake of the news that the three-time American League MVP essentially will be shut down for the next four to six weeks, with his return to the field this season “expected” by the team but not guaranteed.
The calendar goes on, now with 99 regular-season games left for the Yankees — with or without Judge — after a 5-3 loss to the Red Sox on Friday night.
“Can’t pause the schedule,” general manager Brian Cashman said.
The pregame lines spoken on Friday were as obvious as they were predictable.
And for good reason: What else is a team supposed to say?
“Stick a fork in us. We’re done.”
“Already making my October tee times.”
“Might as well play ‘Taps’ for 2026.”
Instead, the prevailing feeling, at least the one expressed publicly, was most comprehensively stated by Cashman.
“Obviously, he’s a significant player, but it takes a team,” he said. “We’ve got a good club regardless. Obviously, it’s not as good without Aaron Judge, but still good enough. Just weather the storm.”
Since Judge’s breakout Rookie of the Year campaign in 2017, the Yankees have been largely unsuccessful in trying to weather the particular storm that comes with the outfielder missing significant time. They’ve won roughly 60% of their games with Judge in the lineup, and that number dips to about 51% without him.
Judge missed 10 games last season with a flexor strain in his right elbow, and the Yankees went 4-6 in that stretch from July 26-Aug. 4.
Not exactly a big sample size, of course.
The sample size was far larger in 2023 when Judge suffered a right big toe sprain after a losing battle with the bullpen fence in rightfield at Dodger Stadium. He missed nearly two months, and the season slowly circled the drain in that time.
The Yankees improved to 35-25 after the June 3 victory in Los Angeles in which Judge got hurt. They went 19-23 without their captain, finished 82-80 and missed the playoffs.
The record is similar this time around — the Yankees fell to 37-26 on Friday, including going 1-2 against Cleveland with Judge out of the lineup as the franchise, on pins and needles, waited for a final diagnosis — but there are differences.
“We’ve got a great ballclub,” Judge said Friday afternoon. “I’m excited about what we’ve got. We’ve got a great pitching staff [that’s] going to continue to carry this team. Hopefully Max Fried’s coming back soon, Big G [Giancarlo Stanton]. We’ll be in a good spot.”
The rotation is the biggest difference between this year’s team and the 2023 one that ultimately foundered without Judge. Even with stud lefty Fried out since May 16 with a left elbow bone bruise, the rotation has continued to be among the best in the game.
The 2023 rotation featured, yes, Gerrit Cole at the top — the righthander would win the AL Cy Young Award — but after that, there was a severe dip. Luis Severino struggled throughout the year. Clarke Schmidt had not yet developed into the starter he would become. Domingo German, other than throwing a perfect game in Oakland, was a disappointment. Carlos Rodon had a disastrous first year in pinstripes.
There also is no comparison in lineups, with the 2026 Yankees having a far deeper and more diverse lineup than their 2023 counterparts.
“This roster is so much better than ’23’s, especially starting pitching and roster depth,” said one rival AL scout who has been assigned to the Yankees for the last decade. “The ’23 bullpen was better, but the Yankees will fix that. They always seem to with the bullpen.”
Also in the Yankees’ favor: The AL, to this point, simply hasn’t been very good. Other than the Yankees, the only clubs that have looked like contenders are the small-market Rays and Guardians. And though the Yankees haven’t done well against either of those teams, they have the resources to make significant roster upgrades at the trade deadline that Tampa Bay and Cleveland do not (or are unwilling to expend).
None of which is to minimize the impact of a prolonged Judge absence, whether it’s one that lasts what appears to be a best-case scenario of roughly two months or something far longer than that.
All of Friday’s appropriately positive verbiage aside — spoken not without cause — that is an obstacle that can’t be understated.
Or oversold.
Erik Boland started in Newsday's sports department in 2002. He covered high school and college sports, then shifted to the Jets beat. He has covered the Yankees since 2009.
