Erik Boland: Final week of Yankees' regular season is all about Aaron Judge and when he can return from calf injury
Aaron Judge of the Yankees looks on from the dugout during sixth inning of an MLB game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on Saturday in Phoenix. Credit: Getty Images/Christian Petersen
A 3-3 road trip at this point of the long season for any big-league team, regardless of standing, would be considered, at the very least, a minor success.
One such trip for the Yankees, which concluded with Sunday’s come-from-ahead 8-4 loss to the Diamondbacks in Phoenix, was nothing short of disastrous.
And, potentially season-altering — and not in a good way — depending on the prognosis for Aaron Judge’s strained right calf.
It all starts there, of course, as this time it was something other than Judge’s upper body commanding attention. The way it had the previous three months as the rightfielder battled his way back from a right rib fracture.
This time, trouble came from below as, in the early innings of Wednesday’s loss to the Twins in Minneapolis, Judge felt discomfort in his right calf. He eventually was pinch hit for in the top of the sixth inning of the 5-4 loss in 13 innings.
That defeat all but put an end to the Yankees' AL title hopes — they fell 4 1/2 games behind the Rays as of day’s end Wednesday and, with Sunday’s loss, they’re six back with seven games to play.
So the 3-3 trip essentially cemented the Yankees as a wild-card team — and sucked any remaining drama there had been for this week’s four-game series against the Rays at the Stadium — a club headed for a best-of-three showdown with the rival Red Sox.
That series, aside from the anything-can-happen element that goes with any short series in baseball, hadn’t thrown a huge scare into the fan base.
It because the Yankees, after a slow start this season against the Red Sox, asserted themselves in the second half.
The Yankees winning three of four against the Red Sox Aug. 28-30, and outscoring them 26-9 in the series, gave the Yankees a 7-6 season-series win against Boston.
A Yankees-Red Sox matchup in the wild-card round has seemed fairly inevitable since Boston left town the night of Aug. 28 after a 16-1 loss.
No, the legitimate scare would come one round later against the Rays, for decades now an annual thorn-in-the-side of the Yankees, Tampa Bay this season featuring an especially well-rounded team that has consistently performed all year.
Now, Judge seems questionable at best for that Yankees-Red Sox series, which suddenly takes on a far different look, and additional angst for Yankees fans, with the potential of the three-time AL MVP missing it entirely or being severely limited in it.
While it’s true the Yankees managed that season-series win against the Red Sox without Judge, who did not return until Sept. 8, that series was mostly outlier when it came to the performance of their offense when the outfielder was out.
The Yankees did well enough in Judge’s absence with a more than respectable 45-39 record, but the difference in the offense’s numbers were striking.
Through May 31, the last game Judge played before going on the IL in early June, Yankees were 36-23, averaging 5.2 runs per game and hitting .243 with a .770 OPS.
Without Judge, before his return on Sept. 8?
The offense averaged 4.1 runs per game and hit 227. with a .681 OPS in that 45-39 stretch.
The upcoming week now becomes all about Judge, the only question mattering: just how serious is the 34-year-old’s calf strain?
In the least surprising development that's occurred since Judge came out of Wednesday’s game with the calf injury, the Yankees, taking their cue from the outfielder, have said little regarding what’s to come.
But even within the vagueness of most of the pair’s answers, there was room for tea-leaf reading.
A somber Aaron Boone, after Wednesday’s game, said (before knowing of the upcoming MRI tests): “Hopefully, we get it treated and knock it out and he’ll be a factor at some point.”
The “some point,” obviously, sending up all kinds of red flags.
Judge, speaking to reporters in Phoenix on Saturday, said, “I’d like to be back by the postseason. That’s definitely the plan.”
Judge saying he’d “like” to be back by the playoffs — which for the Yankees, would begin Sept. 29 — and that it is “the plan” that he is, is not the same as a “This is a small thing. I’ll be back” guarantee.
That Judge, who did not play in any rehab games before his return, went 4-for-26 with 13 strikeouts and one homer in seven games before landing back on the injured list is not relevant.
It’s his mere presence in the lineup — and what it represents in terror factor to opposing pitchers, regardless of whether Judge is in a hot streak or cold streak — that matters.
What kind of a presence — and if Judge will be a presence, period come Sept. 29 — takes center stage in evaluating the week to come, and not how the Yankees do against the Rays, then Orioles to end the season.
Judge’s calf is now all that matters this week, a week that, up until this 3-3 trip, appeared assured to mean so much more.
Erik Boland started in Newsday's sports department in 2002. He covered high school and college sports, then shifted to the Jets beat. He has covered the Yankees since 2009.
