Steve Matthews' Kentucky Derby 2026 horse-by-horse analysis

Kentucky Derby entrant Commandment works out at Churchill Downs on... — Kentucky Derby entrant Commandment works out at Churchill Downs on Tuesday in Louisville. Credit: AP/Charlie Riedel

By Steve Matthewssteve.matthews@newsday.comUpdated May 1, 2026 12:39 pm

Kentucky Derby 2026 tour 4 picks

(6) COMMANDMENT
(18) FURTHER ADO
(15) EMERGING MARKET
(16) PAVLOVIAN

Kentucky Derby 2026 field analysis

1. Renegade (4-1)

We're all aware of the stat that no horse has won from the rail since Ferdinand in 1986. It's nothing more than misleading racetrack dogma. That number falls flat when taken in the context of how many runners were truly legitimate contenders from the rail. This horse is a very real player. If you like him, don't be afraid to wager because of the rail. The odds are the only thing to consider when making a bet. This corner would give the nod to head to the windows if he's 6-1 or greater.

2. Albus (30-1)

The positive: The Wood Memorial winner has yet to take a backward step on the numbers in four races. The negative: He's a touch slow on final figures. Insist on 25-1 or above if you back him.

3. Intrepido (50-1)

He fired a scorching half-mile work over the Churchill Downs surface in 45 seconds but the positives end there. He's 50-1 on the morning line for a reason. Look elsewhere.

4. Litmus Test (30-1)

Seeks to give Bob Baffert his record-tying seventh Derby victory. Fails the test.

5. Right to Party (30-1)

He's literally the slowest horse in the field on speed figures. You'll find him at the back of the pack when they cross the wire.

6. Commandment (6-1)

This handicapper's top selection. Tallied a fast late-pace figure when looping the field with an impressive turn of foot to win the Florida Derby last out. Should find the 1 1/4 miles right in his wheelhouse. Wager with gusto if he's 5-1 or better.

7. Danon Bourbon (20-1)

Traveled more than 6,500 miles from Japan for this. Maybe the connections are just looking to rack up frequent-flyer miles. Should have stayed home.

8. So Happy (15-1)

The "feel good" story of the race as 60-year-old jockey Mike Smith goes for his third Derby. As for the horse, his Santa Anita Derby victory was aided by a perfect trip and fast fractions. AARP won't be getting a cover story.

9. The Puma (10-1)

His second in the Florida Derby was strong but the fact that he couldn't seal the deal puts his ability to get an additional eighth of a mile in question. A contender but demand 15-1 or better before heading to the windows.

10. Wonder Dean (30-1)

A Japan import that won the UAE Derby last time. That's worth noting but this route to the first Saturday in May has been tried before with no success. Don't see this one changing that.

11. Incredibolt (20-1)

Would take a bolt of lightning to land this one in the winner's circle. Doubt that will happen.

12. Chief Wallabee (8-1)

Adds blinkers after coming up short in the Florida Derby last time. The equipment change before the biggest race of his career reeks of desperation by Bill Mott. We're going to steer clear of a horse that's likely to be undervalued.

14. Potente (20-1)

Another from Team Baffert that should be prominent early but up the track late. For Baffert fans only.

15. Emerging Market (15-1)

Looks to give Chad Brown his first Derby winner in 10 tries. He's undefeated in two starts and jockey Flavien Prat opts to stay here instead of Florida Derby winner Commandment. Lots of upside and a big-time contender that's likely to be an overlay on the tote board.

16. Pavlovian (30-1)

He's quick from the gate and fresh off career-best pace figures in his last start. Being on or near the lead in horse racing is like holding pocket aces in Texas Hold'em. With a 30-1 morning line and hailing from the Doug O'Neill barn, he's a must use in all positions in exotic plays.

17. Six Speed (50-1)

Makes stateside debut via the UAE. Wiil need a lot more than six speeds to finish first.

18. Further Ado (6-1)

Was ultra-impressive when winning the Blue Grass stakes by an expanding 11 lengths. Very playable and peaking at the right time.

19. Golden Tempo (30-1)

Even having jockey Jose Ortiz aboard won't give this one a chance.

21. Great White (50-1)

Got into the race with the scratch of (13) Silent Tactic. Great White is far too slow on final numbers and appears to have little chance. Will only manage to get in the way of other horses.