How the 2026 Belmont Stakes will be won

SARATOGA SPRINGS — This very well could develop into another compelling duel between Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo and Derby runner-up Renegade. Or one of the handful of legitimate contenders could interject themselves into the anticipated rematch.

But one thing the 158th Belmont Stakes on Saturday — again being run at 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga Race Course for the third and final year before returning to the reconstructed Belmont Park in 2027 — is not expected to be is fast. The Stakes record at the distance, set by Sovereignty last year at 2:00.69, or the track record of 1:59.36 set by Arrogate in 2016, are considered safe.

“The pace of the race is still a little suspect,” said trainer Chad Brown, who is entering a third of the nine-horse field with 6-1 Emerging Market, 12-1 Growth Equity and 20-1 Ottinho. “There will be a couple of speed horses and a couple of mid-pack horses and there’s definitely some horses with no speed in here. I know I have one of them.”

The majority of Belmont winners this century have either been horses who stalked the pace or were closers.

The Todd Pletcher-trained Powershift (12-1) and Vitruvian Man, a 30-1 shot trained by Doug O’Neill, likely will set the early pace in a field mainly bereft of pure front-runners. The 3-1 Chief Wallabee, trained by Bill Mott and ridden by Junior Alvarado, the same combination that led Sovereignty to Derby and Belmont wins last year, likely will stalk the pace along with Emerging Market and Growth Equity.

Golden Tempo (9-2), who made Cherie DeVaux the first woman to train a Kentucky Derby winner, and Pletcher’s Renegade, the 2-1 morning-line favorite, both showed their ability as closers at Churchill Downs on May 2.

“Kind of the same as in the Derby,” DeVaux said. “The field can go out ahead of him. He’ll just find himself at the back of the pack early in the race. [Post No. 9] is ideal for his running style. As opposed to being inside when horses are crossing over in front of you, on the outside, the horses will break and he’ll just find his footing, probably behind the field again as he has in all of his races.”

Jose Ortiz rode Golden Tempo from last to first in the 18-horse Kentucky Derby, making up nearly 18 lengths to the lead in doing so.

But Renegade, with Ortiz’s brother Irad Ortiz Jr. up, nearly had a more spectacular trip in losing by a neck. A half-mile into the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby, Renegade was still 12 lengths back and stuck badly in traffic. But a strong kick after going out wide nearly allowed him to outduel Golden Tempo down the stretch. He will break from Post No. 4 on Saturday.

“The way it’s stacking up, it doesn’t appear to be a lot of pace,” Pletcher said. “Powershift, in that scenario, would be forwardly placed. And I think they complement each other’s racing styles. Renegade is tractable enough. If they’re not going real fast, he can be a little closer than he has been. He’s adaptable enough to adjust to a really slow pace.”

The Brad Cox-trained Commandment (6-1), 5 1/4 lengths back in seventh in the Kentucky Derby after winning his previous four races, will be ridden by John Velazquez, who has won all three Triple Crown legs in his Hall of Fame career. Commandment, too, likely will stalk the early pace out of Post No. 7.

And a win in the Belmont would rejuvenate his Horse of the Year chances.

“I do think horse racing is made up of what have you done lately,” Cox said. “If you look at a lot of the polls . . . a lot of it comes down to what you did in your last race. And, obviously, that was not the performance we were looking for in the Derby. But I thought it was a good run and I think he’s a little bit forgotten.”

By Andrew Gross

andrew.gross@newsday.comAGrossNewsday

Andrew Gross joined Newsday in 2018 to cover the Islanders. He began reporting on the NHL in 2003 and has previously covered the Rangers and Devils. Other assignments have included the Jets, St. John’s and MLB.