Steve Matthews' Saratoga selections for July 3-5
Friday, July 3
Best bet: WHITE SMOKE RISING (7)
Best value: RIVER TAY (11)
FIRST: Nogardi was a determined winner in last at Churchill Downs and owns faster back figures; rail draw seals the deal. Fact, another last-race winner, has trained sharply in the interim. Pretty Boy Miah is speedy, rested and working swiftly; right in the thick of this.
SECOND: Pavlova's Palace is from a dam that has produced seven turf winners; charting a must in nine-horse field with eight newcomers. Timbertop was third when 44 cents on the dollar in debut; short-priced player once again. Rockabye, a Flightline filly, hails from potent first-out barn; must consider.
THIRD: Fireballin fired half-mile bullet since taking backward step in last start; rebounds today. Anyway tallied fast numbers when second in same last race as top selection; big-time player. The Toy Cannon makes first start since claimed after front-running score in last; dangerous.
FOURTH: Trail Blaze makes first start since moving to Linda Rice barn; breakthrough predicted. Restless Renegade, also from the Rice stable, should improve in second start since two-month layoff. Private Flight is fresh and is more than good enough on "A" efforts.
FIFTH: One More Guitar logged five tight works since facing tougher last out; takes this on best effort. One Last Knock owns two wins and four seconds from seven starts; obvious threat. Oscar's Encore logged lone score on Spa sod; don't ignore.
SIXTH: Prove Worthy is training with a purpose for first start in seven weeks; rates close call. Shipsational wheels back in a hurry after bouncing last week; rebound potential. Metatron's Muse makes first start since claimed after determined win in last; worth long look.
SEVENTH: White Smoke Rising compiled sharp work tab since breaking maiden on May 7; more to come. Belgian was an 11-length winner in lone start on Spa loam; very dangerous. Hit the Post, a wire-to-wire winner in last; could play out as the controlling speed once again.
EIGHTH: Smexy was compromised by soft splits when third in Penn National stake last out; three works in the interim are the clincher. Candy Moonshine is fleet-footed and could prove very tough on an unchallenged lead. Pillar of Beauty was a hard-charging winner in only start on Saratoga turf; must consider.
NINTH: Prime Aurora visually and numerically impressed when winning debut at Gulfstream; ready for prime time. Luminous Beauty broke maiden by more than six lengths the first time she touched Spa soil; very dangerous. Madeleine Swann lived up to heavy tote support when an easy winner in debut at Monmouth; must be factored into the mix.
10TH: Heeere's Johnny should pack amplified wallop with cutback to shorter route; set for best in third start of form cycle. Arizona Territory is riding a two-race winning streak for Chad Brown; very dangerous. Teddy's Rocket is 1-for-1 on Saratoga grass; right in the thick of this
11TH: River Tay tallied swift late-pace figure when a fast-closing second in last; more to come. Pretty Lavish was less than a half-length behind top pick in last and owns faster back numbers; worth long look. Brokealltherules, a wire-to-wire winner in last, could play out as the dominant speed again; very playable. Dividend Recap makes peak start of form cycle after even fourth when favored in same last race as top two selections; must be considered.
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