Steve Matthews' Saratoga selections for July 3-5
Friday, July 3
Best bet: WHITE SMOKE RISING (7)
Best value: RIVER TAY (11)
FIRST: Nogardi was a determined winner in last at Churchill Downs and owns faster back figures; rail draw seals the deal. Fact, another last-race winner, has trained sharply in the interim. Pretty Boy Miah is speedy, rested and working swiftly; right in the thick of this.
SECOND: Pavlova's Palace is from a dam that has produced seven turf winners; charting a must in nine-horse field with eight newcomers. Timbertop was third when 44 cents on the dollar in debut; short-priced player once again. Rockabye, a Flightline filly, hails from potent first-out barn; must consider.
THIRD: Fireballin fired half-mile bullet since taking backward step in last start; rebounds today. Anyway tallied fast numbers when second in same last race as top selection; big-time player. The Toy Cannon makes first start since claimed after front-running score in last; dangerous.
FOURTH: Trail Blaze makes first start since moving to Linda Rice barn; breakthrough predicted. Restless Renegade, also from the Rice stable, should improve in second start since two-month layoff. Private Flight is fresh and is more than good enough on "A" efforts.
FIFTH: One More Guitar logged five tight works since facing tougher last out; takes this on best effort. One Last Knock owns two wins and four seconds from seven starts; obvious threat. Oscar's Encore logged lone score on Spa sod; don't ignore.
SIXTH: Prove Worthy is training with a purpose for first start in seven weeks; rates close call. Shipsational wheels back in a hurry after bouncing last week; rebound potential. Metatron's Muse makes first start since claimed after determined win in last; worth long look.
SEVENTH: White Smoke Rising compiled sharp work tab since breaking maiden on May 7; more to come. Belgian was an 11-length winner in lone start on Spa loam; very dangerous. Hit the Post, a wire-to-wire winner in last; could play out as the controlling speed once again.
EIGHTH: Smexy was compromised by soft splits when third in Penn National stake last out; three works in the interim are the clincher. Candy Moonshine is fleet-footed and could prove very tough on an unchallenged lead. Pillar of Beauty was a hard-charging winner in only start on Saratoga turf; must consider.
NINTH: Prime Aurora visually and numerically impressed when winning debut at Gulfstream; ready for prime time. Luminous Beauty broke maiden by more than six lengths the first time she touched Spa soil; very dangerous. Madeleine Swann lived up to heavy tote support when an easy winner in debut at Monmouth; must be factored into the mix.
10TH: Heeere's Johnny should pack amplified wallop with cutback to shorter route; set for best in third start of form cycle. Arizona Territory is riding a two-race winning streak for Chad Brown; very dangerous. Teddy's Rocket is 1-for-1 on Saratoga grass; right in the thick of this
11TH: River Tay tallied swift late-pace figure when a fast-closing second in last; more to come. Pretty Lavish was less than a half-length behind top pick in last and owns faster back numbers; worth long look. Brokealltherules, a wire-to-wire winner in last, could play out as the dominant speed again; very playable. Dividend Recap makes peak start of form cycle after even fourth when favored in same last race as top two selections; must be considered.
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Saturday, July 4
Best bet: CAPITAL IDEA (10)
Best value: FAITHFUL DEPARTED (7)
FIRST: Irresistible should pack amplified kick with cutback to sprint. Mashallah is speedy and could prove tough on a soft lead. Feminism, an uncoupled barn mate of top pick, also is quick from gate and must be factored into the mix.
SECOND: Bourbon Betty owns sprinter's speed and is training with a purpose; wire to wire with proper ride. Vekoma View could be in the garden spot if top selection hits the wall. Ori is fleet-footed and logged lone win on Spa sod; very interesting.
THIRD: Nonconsecutivetrms logged eye-catching work slate for first start since December; ready. Shelzawa tallied solid late-pace figure when third in stateside debut; dangerous. Bourbon Milk Punch is fleet-footed and could play out as the dominant front-runner.
FOURTH: Grace and Grit should pack intensified kick with cutback to shorter sprint. Queens Cat could prove very tough on an unchallenged lead. Lightning Strike should make forward move with return to dirt; very dangerous.
FIFTH: Rasasi fired 5-furlong bullet since good-looking score in debut at Gulfstream; rates close call. Ashcroft Lane also logged bullet drill since impressive win in first start ; very dangerous. Pocket Listing ships in from SoCal after living up to heavy tote support when winning by more than eight lengths in debut at Santa Anita; could easily takes this.
SIXTH: Stormy Birthday drilled four times since being dueled into defeat last out; return to rating tactics is key. Punto Forty could play out as the main speed in first start for Linda Rice; big-time threat. Joker On Fire must be factored into the mix if able to escape AE list; don't overlook.
SEVENTH: Faithful Departed tallied solid final fraction when winning CD stake last out; more to come. Fitz Right is riding a three-race winning streak; very dangerous. Ultimate Love is right in the thick of this on "A" efforts.
EIGHTH: Parchment Party is 2-for-2 on Spa loam and owns field's fastest late-pace figures. Phileas Fogg is a very tough customer when allowed an unchallenged lead. Antiquarian outworked 64 rivals in half-mile bullet last week; must be factored into the mix.
NINTH: Blackmail was pace- and trip-compromised when second in last; rail draw seals the deal. Touch of Fire owns three wins and a second from four starts; be no surprise. West End Kid bested top selection when winning third straight last time; right in the thick of this.
10TH: Capital Idea, 2-for-2 at Saratoga, will be aided by cutback to mile. Tarantino owns sprinter's speed and could prove tough on a soft lead in big field. Full Screen logs fast figures on best efforts; must consider.
11TH: No Ordinary Love is rested, adds blinkers and could play out as the controlling front-runner in bulky nightcap. Zap That Ghost, an uncoupled barn mate of top selection, could be the prime beneficiary if pace meltdown ensues. Silly Season fits Chad Brown's signature pattern; very interesting. Probable Choice is speedy and must be respected at juicy number.
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Sunday, July 5
Best bet: POSSIBLEMENTE (8)
Best value: COMPLEX AGENDA (9)
FIRST: Merry Maker should move forward in second start since nearly two-year absence. Take Your Seats could prove very tough on an unchallenged lead. Rocket One consistently fires big efforts.
SECOND: Bye for Now drilled four times since debut; tighter today. Music in Motion should be aided by return to dirt. Isthereanormalwife is training swiftly for debut; charting a must.
THIRD: Kyle's Mom could be ideally positioned in the stalker's seat. Princess Becca could prove tough on a soft lead. Pistol Liz Ablazen could impact if pace meltdown ensues.
FOURTH: Party Animal logged improved internal numbers in last; set for breakthrough. Implacable is speedy and should benefit from return to dirt. Holy Seven is training with a purpose for first start since last September; very interesting.
FIFTH: Big Braciole could be sitting on wake-up with switch to sod. Capricious Outcome should pack amplified kick with cutback to shorter route. Crowned Moment hails from potent first-out barn; follow the money.
SIXTH: Cruise the Nile should be cruising right behind potential speed duel; pace makes the race. Maycocks Bay could play out as the swiftest of the swift; dangerous. Zulu Kingdom boasts a 7-for-10 record and hails from Chad Brown barn; underlay written all over him.
SEVENTH: Liberty's Advance fired 3-furlong bullet since racing too close to fast fractions last time; first-time Lasix seals the deal. Liberty's Secret owns speed and also gets the meds; very interesting. Garden of Grace could be in the garden spot if fractions get fast and furious.
EIGHTH: Possiblemente exits surging score in last at Woodbine; ready for prime time. Boss Sully ships in from SoCal after wire-to-wire win at Santa Anita last out; big-time player. Twenty Six Black gets class relief and makes third start of form cycle; right in the thick of this.
NINTH: Complex Agenda fought off all challengers when a front-end winner in last; more to come. Miztertonic owns two wins, a second and a third from four starts on Spa sod; worth long look. Presider is fleet-footed and could prove very tough on a soft lead. Greystone runs late and could impact if pace meltdown ensues.
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