Potential LIRR strike could be 'catastrophic,' cost region $70 million in daily economic activity

Diana Lazo, a retail manager at a mom-and-pop business in Central Islip, worries about how she will keep the store running if a deal between the MTA and Long Island Rail Road unions isn’t reached by Saturday.

The store, Productos Centroamericanos J&C, which sells hot food, ice cream and imported goods from Central America, sits just around the corner of the Central Islip LIRR station, and roughly half of her customers are commuters, Lazo said.

A potential strike will hurt her business sales and impact the shop's ability to pay its overhead costs, said Lazo, who is managing partner of the shop. It would “directly impact customer access, revenues and operations.” 

Lazo is also concerned about staffing the store. A handful of her employees take the LIRR to commute to work. She said the store is considering carpooling or picking up workers to ensure they make it to work.

The business may have to limit its hours of operation, she said. 

The Long Island Rail Road transports more than 270,000 weekday riders each day, and a strike would disrupt the local economy and create ripple effects on businesses that rely on rail access, business leaders and economists said. Businesses, from restaurants and hospitals to retail, construction and tourism, could stand to lose tens of millions in economic activity, experts said.

“The LIRR is an economic lifeline for Long Island and a critical artery for the entire downstate economy,” said Stacey I. Sikes, acting president and CEO of the Long Island Association business group. “A strike could create immediate disruptions for hundreds of thousands of commuters and employees.”

A state comptroller estimate ahead of a potential LIRR strike in July 2014 projected up to $50 million in lost spending daily. Adjusted for inflation, that same figure would be around $70 million a day, said Steven Kent, chief economist for the Long Island Association.

“We on Long Island have not experienced this kind of disruption for a very long time,” said Kent, an associate professor of economics at Molloy University’s School of Business. The LIRR last went on strike in June 1994. 

While businesses in certain professional services, such as accounting, the legal field, or IT support, have tools in place for remote work following the pandemic, many industries, including construction and retail don't, Kent said. Many workers will still need to travel within Long Island or to the city "whether the railroad is working or not."

As a result, Long Island's highways may become even more gridlocked, leading to lost productivity even for businesses with local staff, Kent said. 

A whole host of industries could face ripple effects from a loss in commuter rail service, Kent said.

Northwell Health, the state’s largest private employer, for example, is already putting measures in place to make sure employees can reach their destinations.

“This includes operating dedicated shuttle services and establishing support hubs so that team members can navigate through any commuting disruptions of a potential strike and continue to deliver the exceptional care our patients deserve,” Northwell said in an emailed statement to Newsday.

Michael Florio, chief executive of the Long Island Builders Institute, a construction trade association on Long Island, said the impact on the construction industry could be "catastrophic," as building work can't be done remotely. 

“Any strike would be a devastating blow to Long Island’s economy and would cause millions of dollars in lost economic activity per day,” Florio said.

A potential strike also would come at a time when tourism and lodging businesses on the Island are gearing up for the busy summer season. 

“We get a significant number of tourists who go to the city and come out to the Island afterwards,” said Mitch Pally, interim president and CEO of Discover Long Island, a regional promoter of the Island's tourism industry.

"In many cases, the way they get to the Island is by the train," Pally said. 

Last year, Long Island's economy brought in more than $8 billion in economic activity from tourism, according to Discover Long Island.

Nationally, a record 45 million Americans are expected to travel 50 miles or more from home for the Memorial Day weekend, with 39.1 million of those travelers using cars, according to recent projections by AAA. 

Kristen Porciello, vice president of operations at the Hotel Indigo in Riverhead said the loss of any modes of transportation ahead of Memorial Day weekend posed a risk to hotel stays. Industry officials said it could also slow the collection of hotel and motel taxes.

“This is our busy season, this is the season that people come out for,” Porciello said. “Anything that could stop that could hurt bookings.”