'Sinners' take all? With 16 Oscar nominations, how many will Ryan Coogler's ambitious movie win?

It isn’t a biopic, a historical drama or heartwarming indie. It’s about as far from a typical Oscar movie as you can get. Yet “Sinners,” a horror-musical about vampires in the Jim Crow South, heads into Sunday’s 98th Academy Awards ceremony (7 p.m. on ABC/7, streaming on Hulu) with a record-breaking 16 nominations.

“It really means an overwhelming response to a movie that by traditional standards would never be an Oscar player,” says Clayton Davis, chief awards editor for Variety. “This is not our mom and dad’s Academy Awards anymore.”

Written and directed by Ryan Coogler and starring Michael B. Jordan as twin brothers, “Sinners” could make history in other ways as well. It could become the first horror film to win best picture since 1991’s “Silence of the Lambs.” It could land important wins for Black filmmakers in directing, cinematography and other categories. In fact, “Sinners” could notch an unprecedented three Black Oscar winners in a single night. (So far, the limit has been two.)

That’s if “Sinners” can repeatedly pull ahead of Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another,” starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Teyana Taylor as underground revolutionaries. That film is seen as the year’s heavyweight contender and has picked up crucial pre-Oscar awards from guilds and other groups. Nevertheless, “Sinners” has a certain something that could give it the edge, says Christopher Rosen, co-host of the podcast “Prestige Junkie” and deputy editor at Ankler Media.

“There’s no data,” Rosen admits. “There’s just vibes.”

Here’s how “Sinners” looks heading into all 16 of its Oscar-nominated categories:

BEST PICTURE

It’s worth repeating: This Oscar has gone to a horror film only once in 97 years. What’s more, “One Battle After Another” already won the all-important Producers Guild Award. “Sinners” would have to defy history and a near-perfect Oscar predictor to win. “I know what the stats say, but this is a photo finish,” says Variety’s Davis. “We are not going to know until the envelope is opened.”

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE: The Golden Globe and Critics Choice award went to Timothee Chalamet for “Marty Supreme,” but the even more crucial Actor Award (previously known as the Screen Actors Guild award) went to Jordan. This category will be one of Sunday night’s biggest nail-biters.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

After a 50-year career that includes “Get Shorty” and many a Spike Lee joint, the 73-year-old Delroy Lindo has his first Oscar nod. The favorite here, though, has a bit more star-power: Sean Penn, in “One Battle After Another.”

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

British-Nigerian actress Wunmi Mosaku earned a Gotham and a BAFTA  for playing a hoodoo practitioner in “Sinners.” But Amy Madigan, playing the bizarre Aunt Gladys in “Weapons,” won the Actor Award in this category and looks likely to snag the Oscar.

ORIGINAL SCORE Ludwig Göransson won his first Academy Award for Coogler’s “Black Panther” and his second for “Oppenheimer.” It looks like “Sinners” will be his third. He has won film score awards from the two best predictors of this Oscar, the Hollywood Music in Media Awards and The Society of Composers and Lyricists.

ORIGINAL SONG Göransson has a nod here as well for the bluesy “Sinners” theme “I Lied to You” (written with Raphael Saadiq). That song has also won awards, but the Oscar will likely go to “Golden,” from Netflix’s feel-good animated hit “KPop Demon Hunters.”

SOUND Guild awards have gone to both “Sinners” and to “F1,” the racing movie with Brad Pitt. In a category that often goes to blockbusters (“Dune,” “Top Gun: Maverick”), let’s call this advantage “F1.”

CASTING This is a brand new category, and even Oscar voters may not fully understand it, says Ankler’s Rosen. “Only casting directors might know the specific ins and outs of casting a movie,” he notes. Nevertheless, the pundits at Goldderby.com say this first-ever Oscar will go to Francine Maisler for “Sinners.”

COSTUME DESIGN

Ruth E. Carter is the only Black woman to win two Oscars, both for Coogler films (“Black Panther” and its sequel). A win for “Sinners” would make a nice trifecta, but the lavishly produced “Frankenstein” is the safer bet here.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING This category doesn’t often include horror films, but this year there are three, including “Frankenstein” and the indie production “The Ugly Stepsister.” Guild awards here are a little complicated, but “Frankenstein” seems favored for the Oscar.

PRODUCTION DESIGN Once again, the front-runner is “Frankenstein,” which won The Art Director’s Guild award for period film.

VISUAL EFFECTS “Sinners” eked out just one award from this guild, while “Avatar: Fire and Ash” went home with seven. It’ll probably win this Oscar, too.

CINEMATOGRAPHY ASC No Black or female cinematographer has ever won an Oscar, so Autumn Durand Arkapaw of “Sinners” could set a double precedent here. But Michael Bauman of “One Battle After Another” won the American Society of Cinematographers award this past Sunday, making him all but a sure thing.

FILM EDITING The ACE Eddie awards went to both “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another,” but the latter film may have the edge. Watch this category: On Oscar night, it often predicts best picture.

DIRECTING

Could Coogler become the first Black director to win an Oscar? It’s possible but unlikely: The widely respected Anderson won the Directors Guild Award.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Whose screenplay is more original than Coogler’s? He’s just got to win this category, especially after taking home the Writers Guild Award. And he isn’t competing against Anderson, who’s up for adapted screenplay.