ICE shooting highlights political volatility of immigration issue amid governor's race

ALBANY — Two years ago President Donald Trump and Republicans rode to victory promising increased immigration enforcement and mass deportations. 

Now, polls show the president may have taken the issue too far, with aggressive public enforcement tactics against immigrants who aren’t necessarily the "worst-of-the-worst," as originally touted by Trump, as well as fatal shootings of U.S. citizens.

The Thursday shooting of an immigrant man in New York City by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement underscores the political peril tied to the issue, potentially handing Democrats another example of ICE overreach just weeks before the November elections, according to political analysts and consultants who spoke to Newsday. Meanwhile, New York Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman, Trump and other Republicans sought to highlight the state's sanctuary policies that restrict local law enforcement cooperation with ICE.

Oscar Belgal, 28, alleged by ICE officials to be a gang member in the country illegally, was shot and wounded by an ICE agent. His 5-year-old son was in the car at the time of the shooting but was not injured, according to court records.

The shooting came on the eve of Trump’s visit to Syracuse to energize his Republican base and boost support for Blakeman, the Nassau County executive.

It’s also just days before the first and only televised debate between Blakeman and incumbent Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul.

"I think this is probably going to help the Democrats all around the country because it's yet another incident that will energize people who are already predisposed to favor Democrats, but may not have made a point of turning out," said Grant Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship. He noted increasing turnout by a few points "can make a huge difference."

And because the event happened in New York, it will further help energize Democratic turnout in New York, he said.

But other factors could play out in Republican’s favor, including details surfacing about whether the immigrant was at fault; comments from left-leaning Democrats that turn off more centrist voters; and public perception if there are violent protests, political analysts and strategists told Newsday.

It’s "not a big windfall because the race isn’t really about Hochul and Blakeman, it’s about Hochul and Mamdani," said Hank Sheinkopf, a Manhattan-based political strategist who has worked for Democratic and Republican candidates. Whatever New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist, says about ICE will reflect on the governor, and he’s not popular in the suburbs, particularly on Long Island, where Hochul needs to win votes, Sheinkopf told Newsday.

Mamdani on Thursday night condemned ICE and demanded the agency be abolished.

Public opinion

The incident mirrors others between immigrants and ICE agents nationally and adds to the public perception that enforcement has gone too far, political analysts said.

A Siena University poll released Aug. 12 showed 60% of likely voters in New York State opposed the way ICE agents are working to arrest people they suspect to be living in the U.S. illegally, and 63% of the voters polled said they thought the tactics used by ICE had gone too far.

Likely voters were split, with 47% saying Hochul would do a better job addressing undocumented immigrants living in the state and 43% saying Blakeman would, according to a Siena poll released Sept. 23.

At the same time, a Siena poll of Long Islanders released last month found a majority, 51% to 45%, opposed a state law signed by Hochul that bans local law enforcement agencies from signing cooperation agreements with ICE.

The ICE shooting isn’t likely to impact voters who already were planning on showing up for Hochul or Blakeman, but it could motivate voters who were on the fence or didn’t plan to participate, political analysts and strategists said.

Because it happened here, it "feels closer to home," Reeher said.

But much could happen in the next few days, said Shawn Donahue, a clinical associate professor of political science at the University at Buffalo.

There appeared to be a racial awakening after the death of George Floyd — a Black Minneapolis man who was killed by a white police officer in 2020 — but violent protests and some Democrats' calls to defund the police are still issues Democrats are dealing with today, Donahue said. "I think we’re going to have to see kind of how it plays out over the next few days and especially over the weekend."

Pointing fingers

Hochul Thursday night said she was "outraged" and demanded answers, calling ICE a "rogue federal agency." On Friday she called for more training for ICE agents and told Newsday she had asked Trump and federal officials to "suspend ICE operations for the time being."

Blakeman, speaking to members of the media ahead of the Trump event in Syracuse Friday, blamed Hochul and the state’s immigration policies.

"That guy was in this state illegally. He's a convicted felon. He's a drug dealer," Blakeman said. "He made our state less safe. He preyed on the people in this state. Shame on you, Kathy Hochul."

The state Democratic and Republican parties were already quick to point fingers.

"Mamdani and Hochul will put illegal immigrants — even known gang members — above law-abiding Americans every day. New Yorkers will remember that when they go to the polls next month," Republican Party spokesman David Laska told Newsday in an email.

State Democratic Chair Jay Jacobs in an emailed statement called out Blakeman for "enabling all of it by running the most pro-ICE campaign in the country."

"Blakeman is defending Trump’s abuses of power and has justified killings of Americans at the hands of his rogue agents — he is not doing anything to bring New Yorkers together or make us safer, and we can’t let him get anywhere near the governor’s mansion," Jacobs said. 

Newsday's Steve Hughes and Joe Werkmeister contributed to this story.