Attack ads from Hochul started more than 4 years ago, but not against Blakeman

ALBANY — Here’s one thing you don’t see in the New York campaign for governor this summer: A splurge of political ads by Gov. Kathy Hochul blasting her opponent.

That’s a noticeable difference from 2022.

And it reflects a change in spending strategy by the Democrat and a lesson learned from four years ago, as well as a change in the national political landscape as Hochul vies for reelection against Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman.

Back in ’22, Hochul began hammering her GOP rival, then-Rep. Lee Zeldin, not long after he won a June gubernatorial primary. Hochul went after Zeldin especially on abortion but also the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.

The strategy followed the political maxim of how to handle a candidate who isn’t well-known: "define your opponent before he gets to define himself."

The advertisements flooded television and online formats and helped Hochul build a huge lead in the polls going into September. But, looking back now, the ads — focused mainly on the ending of federal abortion rights, rather than crime — missed the main issue of the campaign and helped raise Zeldin’s name recognition, said Jay Jacobs, the state Democratic Party chairman.

"We spent a lot of money ineffectively in the summer last cycle and we had less resources later when voters pay more attention," Jacobs told Newsday. "This time, we’re doing a lot of social media, a lot of digital (ads). But you’re not going to see broadcast ads till later in the campaign."

Nassau County Republican chairman Joseph Cairo Jr., whose committee has been a key Blakeman fundraiser, offered another take.

"I think Blakeman has a great record and it makes it more difficult for them to attack him," Cairo said. But, he added: "I think there is an argument that when they attack, you do get some (increased) name recognition."

Name recognition

Somewhat like Zeldin, Blakeman entered the 2026 campaign known on Long Island but not so much in the rest of the state. In February, 62% of those surveyed by Siena University said they didn’t know Blakeman or know enough to have an opinion. By mid-June, that declined to 54%.

While that number is going in the right direction for the Nassau Republican, it’s still a big one that he’ll have to work to reduce by November. Analysts said it’s clear Hochul isn’t doing much to raise Blakeman’s profile.

"By attacking Zeldin early, she made him much more prominent. So why repeat the same mistake?" Hank Sheinkopf, a veteran Democratic strategist, said.

"To be running in a blue state and be in attack mode might not be the smart thing to do right now," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College poll and a 50-year observer of New York politics. "The old strategy was to blast away at your opponent, spend a lot of money calling him risky — but it can backfire. Some of it can splash back on the (attacker), and calling attention to a race the public isn’t paying attention to yet might not be the best strategy."

Further, the political climate is much different now, he noted.

Republican President Donald Trump "is on the ballot" — meaning he will be the dominant issue this fall — and not doing well in the New York polls, Miringoff noted. Democratic President Joe Biden was in office in 2022 when Republicans did well nationally.

Also, Hochul was in office just a matter of months when the 2022 campaign began — taking over after Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo’s resignation in August 2021. She’s now been in office five years and is better known among voters.

"A big difference is her political profile is more defined than four years ago," Miringoff said. "Four years ago, she was kind of an asterisk. Now, she’s an elected governor."

Poll numbers

Blakeman's ad strategy has focused on social media so far, including AI-generated pokes at Hochul.

Though Hochul had a 20-point lead over Blakeman in Siena’s June poll, just 43% said they viewed her favorably, which isn’t a good number for an incumbent. But that is offset by 53% saying they approve of the job she’s done in office.

Cairo said Hochul will be open to attacks for implementing congestion tolling and being allied at times with New York City  Mayor Zohran Mamdani — which already has been a key part of Republican strategy — among other things.

Sheinkopf said the race is far from over and part of Hochul’s strategy right now is “not make herself vulnerable to attacks.”

And don’t say “Bruce.” Too much, anyway.

“The time to go banging into your opponent is much later in the season,” he said. “Not now.”

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy