Long Island, East Coast could be in for a wetter but warmer winter, forecasters say

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts a warmer and wetter winter season due to this year’s "super El Niño," a year after a winter marked by extreme cold and a single blizzard that buried some Long Islanders under 2½ feet of snow. 

On Thursday, the NOAA released its three-month seasonal projection for December through February, detailing temperature and precipitation trends for the entire United States. For Long Island, and much of the East Coast, the forecast is "what you would expect for a very strong El Niño year," Newsday meteorologist Geoff Bansen said in a Friday telephone interview. That means warmer than normal temperatures and wetter than average conditions.

But even with those outlooks, it's way too early to answer the one question likely on top of most peoples’ minds: how much snow is going to fall?

"Those two things in and of themselves can’t really tell you whether there will be numerous snowstorms or not," Bansen said. "I think there will be ample opportunities, but it’s going to come down to timing and the potential of limited cold air."

These opportunities may present themselves as nor'easter winter storms, said Jase Bernhardt, an associate professor and the director of sustainability studies in the Department of Geology, Environment and Sustainability at Hofstra University.

"We expect it to be a wetter winter, but whether that’s big snowstorms or tilting more towards rain, that’s harder to say," Bernhardt added. "More precipitation could mean more snow, but then if it’s not cold, then you have more mixed precipitation or rain."

Last October, NOAA projected Long Island could expect an average amount of precipitation and warmer than normal temperatures that winter, seemingly standard following a string of mild winters. Instead, temperatures were colder than normal, and Long Islanders dug out much more than the normal amount of snow, which is just over 32 inches for the entire season.

This year’s outlook poses uncertainty for Long Island, as it is "kind of on the edge" of areas NOAA mapped out with the highest likelihood of warmer than normal temps and above normal storm activity, Bernhardt said.

The last three "very strong" El Niño winters that are "comparable to this year" — 2015-16, 1997-98 and 1982-83 — produced varying snowfall amounts — 41.4 inches, 2.6 inches and 31.9 inches, respectively, Bansen said. That history tells us, he added, "that we could certainly see an average to slightly above average amount of snow, but there is also a lot of bust potential to see very little snow."

"Overall, I don’t see this being a blockbuster year," Bansen said.

The NOAA release also projects drought conditions throughout the country.

"No drought conditions are expected on Long Island, which is nice because we have been fluctuating so much," Bansen said. "We went from exceptional drought to a big rain surplus."

The NOAA report offers "more powerful" insights for areas of the country beyond Long Island, such as the Southwest, Bernhardt said. The outlook of more potential rainfall in that region, he said, is "really important" for the Southwest "because they have perpetually been drought-stricken for the past few decades."

NOAA routinely releases three-month seasonal outlooks. While the agency offers broad insights into temperature, precipitation and drought conditions, its forecasters cannot project snowfall totals, "as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance," the NOAA said in the release. The next three-month outlook will be released on Nov. 19.