Jets OC Frank Reich uses analytics to defend controversial fourth-down play call vs. Packers

FLORHAM PARK, N.J. – The old quarterback was prepared for this moment, prepared for what he was going to face, and Frank Reich didn’t flinch.

The Jets' offensive coordinator showed up to his weekly news conference on Thursday armed with data and analytics to defend his fourth-and-1 play call in last Sunday’s overtime loss to the Packers.

Reich has received criticism in the sports pages, on the airwaves and across social media for calling a run out of shotgun formation with running back Braelon Allen five yards behind the line of scrimmage. Allen was stuffed for no gain at midfield.

If the Jets got the first down, they might have won the game in regulation. Since they didn’t, Reich has taken some arrows, and he expected them.

Before the season, Reich met with his staff and went over their best fourth-and-1 or short-yardage goal-to-go plays with the game on the line. During the meeting, Reich joked that if they don’t get the first down running the ball in those situations, “Everybody’s going to say, ‘Reich, is that all you got? Is that all you got?’ No, that's not all we got, but that's the best play with the highest conviction, the best percentages, and what we do best.”

Reich acknowledged that it was fair to question the play call and then made his case for why he did. It was all based on analytics. The Jets, as has been documented since training camp, are relying on analytics more than ever. Maybe too much in this case.

According to Reich, the Jets did a study on fourth-and-1 calls excluding quarterback sneaks over a three- and five-year period. He said “gun runs” were successful 71% of the time as opposed to a 67% success rate when the quarterback is under center.

“Gun runs are actually better,” Reich said. “And the reason it’s better, percentage wise, over a five-year period, is because there's a threat of a pass, and they don't get so tight. So we have that perspective going in.”

Reich added that same study showed a 57% conversion rate on passes.

“Trust me, we're going to throw it on fourth-and-1 one some,” Reich said. “Maybe this week, maybe not, but unless you're an elite quarterback-sneak team . . . the analytics would say, a gun direct run is the best percentage call on that play. And for us, that's what I had the most conviction in.”

In fairness to Reich, the play almost worked. Packers defensive lineman Lukas Van Ness beat Jeremy Ruckert inside and blew up the run. But Reich nor Aaron Glenn, who also defended the play call, are going to throw any players under the bus.

“I do not regret that decision, not one bit,” Glenn said. “Just have to give hats off to those guys - they made a play.”

Analytics are great guides, but sometimes it’s better to let the feel of the game make your decision. The Jets were not running the ball well. They finished with 67 yards on 27 carries. The Packers consistently got push up front. The Jets broke a few runs, but it still was a risky call.

Reich has a quarterback sneak on his call sheet. He implied he might have run it with Geno Smith if it was less than a yard to go.

“I’m not saying what we’ll do,” Reich said, “but we had a full yard to go. There is a difference between a half a yard and a yard, and every team feels the same way about this.”

Another option would have been the “Tush Push,” the play the Eagles have used successfully in short-yardage situation. Other teams do it well, too. The Jets have a thick, strong tight end in Kenyon Sadiq who would be a good candidate to get under center and plunge forward for one yard.

This was another fair question, Reich said before detailing why it wasn’t considered. Weather was a factor, as well as Sadiq missing most of camp rehabbing from core-muscle surgery. They haven’t really practiced it and wouldn’t want to see Sadiq getting hurt.

“Are we going to put him out there on a quarterback sneak, on a rainy day?” Reich said. “Or any tight end on a rainy day, where the quarterback snap, that's not what they do for a living - especially on a rainy day.

“Now, do we have that in our game plan? I'm not about to say that. Of course, we have quarterback sneak in the game plan. Do we have it with anybody else? We've talked about everything ad nauseam.”

Reich also quoted a proverb: “A man of wisdom avoids all extremes. So we're not going to run the same play every time.”

Reich, is that all you got? Apparently not.

By Al Iannazzone

al.iannazzone@newsday.comAl_Iannazzone

Al Iannazzone covers the Jets for Newsday after spending nearly two decades on the NBA beat with Knicks and Nets.