Islanders offseason roster analysis, Part 1: The forwards

The biggest roster turnover for the Islanders this offseason could come among its group of forwards.

Obviously, that’s a speculative projection, but it is clear the Islanders need to produce more goals. And it’s unclear whether unrestricted free agent captain Anders Lee, a mainstay for 14 seasons, will settle on a new contract or continue his career elsewhere.

“I told him I’d love to see him play his 1,000th game with the Islanders,” general manager Mathieu Darche said during breakup day on April 15 at Northwell Health Ice Center in East Meadow of the soon-to-be 36-year-old Lee, who is 77 games shy of the milestone. “What that looks like, whether we’re able to find something that is suitable for us and for him, we’ll discuss. But I’m always looking forward, too. What are the other options we have? What do we need to do to move this roster forward?”

One thing did become clear in the four games Pete DeBoer coached after replacing Patrick Roy on April 5: He wants speed in the middle. That means the plan is for Mathew Barzal to play as a center after essentially being a wing since top-line pivot Bo Horvat was acquired from the Canucks on Jan. 30, 2023. The same is true for Cal Ritchie after he switched back and forth between center and wing as a rookie.

Does that mean longtime third-line center Jean-Gabriel Pageau becomes a wing or does that squeeze out longtime fourth-line center Casey Cizikas, entering the final season of a six-year, $15 million deal that affords him no roster protection?

Those are among the questions Darche will likely answer with his offseason maneuverings.

“You rarely go through a season without injuries so the more centers you have,” Darche said. “It’s nice having the speed with the style of play that we want to go [with]. It’s get the puck. Let’s not go defenseman to defenseman. Get it, go up. So Barzy’s speed is good in our zone.”

But given the Islanders’ contract situations — for instance, Pierre Engvall, who missed all of this season with hip and ankle injuries, still has four seasons remaining on the ill-advised seven-year, $21 million deal with a modified no-trade clause that former GM Lou Lamoriello gifted him — Darche may not be able to make as many changes as he wants.

He even said one of his biggest offseason “trades” would be getting a healthy Kyle Palmieri back. The top-six wing from Smithtown had six goals and 12 assists in 25 games before tearing the ACL in his left knee on Nov. 28.

“I’m looking forward to putting this behind me and having a pretty normal summer as far as training and getting ready for the season,” Palmieri said during breakup day. “Obviously, it’s a significant knee injury and surgery, but guys have gone through it and I’m confident with the way the first four months have gone. I’ve got a couple more months of the day-to-day rehab stuff but, at a certain point, it’s just going to be a pretty normal summer for me.”

Palmieri’s return would be a boost to the Islanders’ scoring, even if Lee departs.

The Islanders’ 233 goals — an average of 2.8 per game — ranked 24th in the NHL.

DeBoer will have to decide how to construct his top six. Roy used Brayden Schenn as the second-line center after his acquisition from the Blues on March 6, but DeBoer swapped Schenn to the wing with Barzal in the middle.

Emil Heineman and Simon Holmstrom are both solid players who can be counted on for 15-20 goals, but both are likely best suited for a third-line role. Kyle MacLean and Marc Gatcomb are capable fourth-liners, but Darche could look to upgrade there as well.

There’s no indication what Darche’s plans for Engvall will be and whether he is still considered an option. The same holds true for Anthony Duclair, who will be entering the third season of a four-year, $14 million deal with a modified no-trade clause. Duclair was a frequent healthy scratch late in the season and has never provided the top-six speed and scoring that was expected when he was signed. Max Shabanov, signed out of the KHL, is a restricted free agent and there does not seem to be much interest on either side for him to return.

The hope is first-rounders Cole Eiserman and Victor Eklund push for roster spots, as well as other forwards from the Islanders’ AHL affiliate such as Liam Foudy, Adam Beckman and Daylan Kuefler.

By Andrew Gross

andrew.gross@newsday.comAGrossNewsday

Andrew Gross joined Newsday in 2018 to cover the Islanders. He began reporting on the NHL in 2003 and has previously covered the Rangers and Devils. Other assignments have included the Jets, St. John’s and MLB.