Hochul leads Blakeman by 9 points statewide; he's up 8 points on Long Island, Newsday/Siena polls say

Gov. Kathy Hochul leads Bruce Blakeman by 9 points statewide in the race for governor, although he leads by 8 points among Long Island voters, according to new Newsday/Siena University polls released Wednesday.

It’s a survey that has takeaways for each candidate with Election Day less than six weeks away.

Hochul, a Democrat, leads Blakeman, a Republican, statewide, 50% to 41%. Her lead declined 1 point from August, but, notably, this was the first time she hit the 50% mark in a Siena survey of likely voters from around the state — a threshold that is often key for an incumbent’s chances.

In the tally of just Long Island residents, Blakeman leads Hochul, 51% to 43%. While each candidate has strong support from party members, Blakeman has a sizeable lead among independent and minor-party voters: 57% to 31%.

Still, the Nassau County executive has work to do to match Lee Zeldin, the 2022 Republican candidate who won the Island by 14 points but lost the overall contest by 6 points to Hochul.

Blakeman "is strong on Long Island. He’s strong on his home turf in Nassau County," said Don Levy, director of the Siena Research Institute. "But he needs to win astronomically big on Long Island because New York City is going to vote Democratic" in strong numbers for Hochul.

In Wednesday’s statewide poll, Hochul leads 61-27 among New York City voters; and 48-46 among the metro suburbs (Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Rockland counties). Blakeman leads upstate, 47-44.

"The northern suburbs are clearly different than Long Island," Levy said, referring to Westchester and Rockland.counties. "They push just every number in every category about five points in the Democratic direction."

Back in 2022, Zeldin garnered 30% of the New York City vote, which analysts say was a good showing. But he won upstate by just 10 percentage points and the metro suburbs by 6 points — which were less than a Republican needs, in both regions, to achieve victory.

Quinnipiac University, in a separate poll released Wednesday, said Hochul’s lead over Blakeman is much larger: 59% to 39%.

Quinnipiac surveyed 1,026 likely New York voters, roughly the same as Siena; and its margin of error is plus or minus 4.1 percentage, also similar to Siena. One key difference is Quinnipiac said “independent/other” voters comprised 40% of its survey; for Siena, it was 21%. According to the New York State Board of Elections data, this group accounts for 29% of currently registered voters.

Long Island numbers

In the Newsday/Siena poll for Island voters only, Blakeman leads in Suffolk County, 53-38. The survey said the race is a dead heat in Nassau, with Blakeman ahead, 49-48.

As with the rest of the state, there is a gender divide. Women favor Hochul, 48-44. Men prefer Blakeman, 58-37.

Statewide, men are evenly split, 47-47, while women overwhelmingly like Hochul, 57-34.

The Island poll was conducted Sept. 11-17, among 411 likely voters in Suffolk and Nassau. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.7 percentage points, meaning the answer to any question can vary that much.

Issues

Asked about specific topics, Islanders favored Blakeman on making the state affordable (50-41), keeping residents safe (54-38) and addressing undocumented immigrants (55-38).

Statewide, those leanings are completely reversed. Hochul leads on affordability (49-40), safety (49-43) and immigrants (47-43). And yet those aren’t bad numbers for Blakeman, Levy said, because his deficit on each is smaller than Hochul’s overall lead in the race

"Blakeman does fairly well on the issues. That’s something he can hang his hat on," Levy said.

Trump, Mamdani impact

The race has been a good deal of campaign-by-proxy, with Hochul trying to tag Blakeman with Trump and the "MAGA" movement; and Blakeman trying to associate Hochul with New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a self-described democratic socialist.

The Siena poll suggests one tactic might be more effective than the other.

Statewide, 51% of New Yorkers said Trump’s endorsement of Blakeman will have a negative effect; just 30% said positive. Even on the Island, the endorsement gets a mixed review: 42% to 42%.

In contrast, 50% of New Yorkers say Mamdani’s endorsement of Hochul will have a positive impact while 30% say negative. Even on Long Island, the positive outdoes the negative, 45-37.

Blakeman voters

There was no shortage of strong opinions among voters contacted by Newsday about the poll and the race for governor.

"I am supporting Blakeman because I don’t like Hochul at all," said Diane DeVito, 71, a Baldwin Republican, specifically citing business issues and climate.

"I don’t believe we should be blocking everything ... her blocking of pipelines, her blocking of oil drilling and fracking (upstate)," DeVito said, adding about drilling: "Everybody else (other states) is doing it and everybody (upstate) is suffering up there," economically.

She added she was a lifelong Democrat "but after Cuomo, I couldn’t take it anymore," referring to Hochul’s predecessor, Andrew Cuomo, who was governor from 2011-21.

James Schlee, a 67-year-old independent voter in Babylon, said: "I think Kathy Hochul does not have the best of CITIZENS of New York State in mind."

Asked if he was making a point about emphasizing the word, Schlee said: "Yes, she is much too interested in people who, legally, aren’t supposed to be in the country. ... What about us who were born here?"

Hochul in June signed sweeping package of legislations pushing back against aggressive federal arrests and deportation of people in the country without documentation. The measures include severely limiting cooperation between local law enforcement and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officials, banning ICE agents from wearing masks and giving New Yorkers the ability to sue federal officials for alleged violations of constitutional rights.

Hochul voters

"Hochul. Because Bruce Blakeman is just going to be more Trump nonsense," said Tracey Schleske, 47, a Westhampton Beach Democrat. She specifically cited women’s rights and abortion rights — President Donald Trump in his first term appointed the Supreme Court justices who eventually overturned federal abortion rights in 2022.

“(Blakeman) just says things that have no substance, that are not based in reality. He says he’s going to cut taxes — where’s the revenue going to come from?" Schleske said. "Republicans, in my lifetime, have never delivered anything they promised. They have always been attacking women’s rights."

Hugh Rogers, a 27-year-old Coram Democrat, said the biggest reason he is supporting Hochul is because he’s seen the impact of the governor’s expansion of a program providing free breakfast and lunches for students. He’s a middle-school teacher.

"That change has been strikingly visible to me," Rogers said. "Instead of me having to provide them with something to eat, I now have a guarantee that they're going to have a sizable meal."

Other statewide contests

Democrat Attorney General Letitia James leads Republican challenger Saritha Komatireddy, 52% to 39% statewide. However, the Republican leads on Long Island, 48-45.

Incumbent Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli leads GOP challenger Joseph Hernandez 56-33. DiNapoli, a lifelong Nassau County resident, is the lone statewide Democratic candidate who leads on the Island — a 51-39 advantage over Hernandez.

Siena’s statewide poll was conducted Sept. 11-17, among 1,144 and has a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points. 

Newsday's Steve Hughes contributed to this report.