Recent history shows Mets may not benefit from firing Carlos Mendoza

It’s not even May, but managerial changes are the talk of baseball.

The Red Sox sent shock waves through MLB Saturday night, when they fired Alex Cora and five other coaches after a 10-17 start. If the conversation in Queens wasn’t loud enough already, the speculation surrounding Mets manager Carlos Mendoza’s future has heated up with a World Series-winning manager now on the market.

The Mets (9-19) have lost 15 of 17 games, are tied for MLB’s worst record and own MLB’s worst offense by several metrics, including runs scored (92) and OPS (.625). The Mets’ skipper isn’t entirely at fault, as plenty of blame has landed on David Stearns for his roster reconstruction, but fans have become irate. Could a new voice change things?

“I don't get that sense,” Mendoza said Sunday after the Mets were swept in a doubleheader by the Rockies.

Said Brett Baty: “No. I think we all have each other's backs in here, and I think we all understand that we're going to keep working hard and we're going to have each other's backs until the last day.”

And Juan Soto: “I don’t think [Mendoza] has been doing anything wrong. I think he’s been doing a great job as manager. He’s putting the pieces in the right spots. We haven’t come through.”

Franchises that do make in-season changes try to find the same lightning in a bottle that was uncovered by the 2003 Marlins, who won the World Series after swapping out Jeff Torborg for Jack McKeon. Other success stories included the 1988 Red Sox – when Joe Morgan took over after the All-Star break, immediately won 12 straight and ultimately won the AL East – and the 1978 Yankees, when Billy Martin was forced to resign and Bob Lemon led the team to a World Series title.

There’s no guarantee, of course, that any managerial change will work, and most recent ones haven't. Oftentimes the personnel largely remains the same, but the magnitude of the move could light a fire under the players.

From 2021-25, there were 10 in-season managerial firings before September. Let’s dive into the three that worked best during the same season, including two that resulted in playoff berths:

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2022 PHILLIES

The Phillies fired Joe Girardi with a 22-29 record on June 3, 2022, and replaced him with Rob Thomson, who led them to a 65-46 finish and an NL pennant in a move that worked at the time; Thomson, still Philadelphia’s manager, also is on the hot seat as the Phillies and Mets share MLB’s worst record.

The Phillies stars started playing like stars, too. With Girardi in 2022, JT Realmuto had a .695 OPS and Kyle Schwarber a .744 OPS. After Thomson took over, Realmuto had an .879 OPS and Schwarber had an .864 OPS. Bryce Harper played in only 54 regular-season games after Girardi’s firing, but he was the Phillies’ postseason hero with the go-ahead homer that sent them to the World Series.

2022 BLUE JAYS

The Blue Jays were 46-42 when they fired Charlie Montoyo on July 13, 2022, and John Schneider, Toronto’s current manager who led them to Game 7 of the World Series last year, took over. Schneider’s Jays ended the 2022 regular season on a 46-28 stretch and lost in the AL Wild Card Series.

Like Philadelphia’s stars, some of Toronto’s best players improved. Bo Bichette’s OPS improved from .732 under Montoyo to .891 under Schneider in 2022, and Matt Chapman’s OPS rose from .705 to .814. Toronto’s pitching also improved, with their team ERA at 4.12 with Montoyo and at 3.62 under Schneider.

2024 MARINERS

It was too little, too late for the Mariners once they fired Scott Servais on Aug. 22, 2024, but it set the foundation for the upcoming seasons. Seattle, which held a 10-game AL West lead on June 19 but was in second place by July 24, was 64-64 when Servais was fired. Dan Wilson, still Seattle’s manager, took over as they finished the season 21-13. The Mariners’ 85-77 record wasn’t enough to make the 2024 playoffs, but they were in the 2025 ALCS and entered 2026 as a contender.

THE OTHERS

While those three moves worked, the other seven weren’t necessarily memorable. Only one team was close to .500 when they fired their manager: the 2022 Angels were 27-29 when they replaced Joe Maddon with Phil Nevin, who went 46-60.

The six other teams were at least 12 games under .500 when they made moves, and the 2024 White Sox and 2025 Rockies finished as two of the worst teams in MLB history. Only one of the six play at least .500 after making the change: last year’s Orioles were 15-28 on May 17, when they replaced Brandon Hyde with Tony Mansolino, who went 60-59.

For this year’s $370 million Mets, the pressure and situation obviously are unique. Time will tell if a move is made, but recent history has varied on whether it may be effective.